Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

VET was $20 at the start of 2020

[Rational43]

European NG prices were nowhere near as high, neither were WTI, Brent, or NA NG prices in Jan of 2020.

Debt is lower than 2020 and FFO is going to be 40% higher than 2019, which would have been the comparison for the Jan 2020 stock price.

This is a far superior company on every metric than it was on Jan 2020, trading at $15 vs $20 back then.  

$25 will be reached within 12 months.

[Moemoney42]

Agreed Rational... a new 52 week high being hit today tells me we're looking at a good close for the year end and higher highs in 2022.. GLTA... ;-)

[Ebankbank]

I agree, but this stock was 30 bucks in 2019 and I believe based on everything including FCF for 21 we should have higher dividends in 2022 and hopefully hit 30 again. 

[Moemoney42]

Agreed.. slow and steady with the divi increases in 2022 will certainly take VET over $20 next year.. and my thoughts are $25 could be acheived by year end 2022.. IMHO.. ;-)

[whoLuLu]

we are all on the same page.. best for the new years guys  LuLu

[Rational43]

I wouldn't bet against $30, if oil prices get back to the $80 range and given the increased likelihood of high European NG prices for years.   New NG hedging will be north of $20 per mcf out to end of '23....wait until they announce some new NG drilling on the Continent.   The purchase of additiona WI in Corrib NG was clearly the impetus for the recent relative

[Moemoney42]

That would be great.. although I don't think it will be next year but 2023 if these prices hold, who knows..?? With higher divi's by that time you could be right..? nice price action and new 52 week high again today.. me likes.. ;-)

[Rational43]

[Oldnagger]

Canada has been a land of deception for a very long time. Now we are all paying the price as the valuation of our real assets is marked down . The real value is probably 3 to 5 times higher for VET and for many other Canadian O&G companies. Many instiutional investors recognize this , but are all to happy to yoyo the market while picking up cheap shares. The only defence for retail is buy and

[Pandora]

"Eventually share price and value will converge, only then should investors consider selling !!" And how does the ordinary joe recognize that event?  

[Oldnagger]

Best thing is to calculate the value of the company versus alternatives of a similar risk profile. VET does the comparison in their presentation. It is up to each investor to try to assess the risks. Given that VET stands out so much against other alternatives it is fairly easy to guesstimate the risk . without being seriously wrong. Right now the only risk I can seriously see is increasing 

[Pandora]

[Oldnagger]

Yes, or page 21 which is the recipical  I believe . The other metric, that I prefer is the change in net asset values from year to year. But it is a more detailed calculation and I am afraid that VET has not helped us as they did not do a reserves value calculation in 2020. Nevertheless, I believe the net asset value has increased dramatically over the last year. Reserve values have surely

[Oldnagger]

As the light of day hopefully brings back reason, I would like to stress that the rough calculations shown above, are merely back of the envelope calculations that I use, as such I have made many assumptions that may or may not be realistic. I would thus highly recommend that each investor do his own calculations. A good starting point would be VET's published reserves that they show on their

[Moemoney42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[mnztr]

And we need to consider CF increased by  at least 30% with Corrib. 

[WinstonSmith]

What is important is not the spot price of Brent or European gas... but the forward months futures.. the forward strip. Right now the forward strip is much below the current spot as speculators reckon that these prices can't last. There is also the fear that we could get in for another crash or protracted bear. As the spot remain elevated and fears subside we can expect VET to continue to soar

[mnztr]

Here is the chart for brent futures I am seeing over 80 all through 22. Am I missing something?  https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CB*0/futures-prices

[DukesMtl]

It's all about the cash flow and the flow increases as the price of oil rises!

[Moemoney42]

Broke through that magical $20 price this AM.. crude  holding nicely with the US closed.. nice!!

[CriticalMind55]

How much more room is left in VET I wonder, is it time to switch them to TOU which is more undervlaued than VET IMO.

[mnztr]

Its even better then that, FCF increases much more then the oil price gain. For every $ in oil price gain, FCF at VET increases by more then 35m. Oil at 100 a bbl will send FCF up by about 500m

[Moemoney42]

Well given that we're yet to hear confirmation of reinstating the divi for 2022 and the ability for that divi to increase I'd say a $25 CDN stock price is certainly in the cards by years end.. that in itself is a 25% increase from today's levels..  not counting the dividend returns.. JMHO   ;-)