Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

Share Buy Backs

[ronster65]

I had a very interesting discussion with another O&G senior Exec and we were discussing companies buying back shares. This Exec asked me, at what share price would a company want to buy back shares and I said that on any major dip in stock price. The Exec said what if the stock price just keeps rising? I said that somehow the company would have to find a way to drop the share price so that they could accumulate. The Exec then said right now with obvious value of these stock prices for any O&G company there is really only one vehicle they have to intentionally
drop prices and that is to announce no divvys at this time and then the stock will drop instantly to a level where the company could afford to accumulate in a buy back program. 
With that stated, If VET does not announce a divvy but everything else is better than on track and debt paid off sooner than previously thought then I can see the stock price drop about 10%-20% and buy program initiated. If Divvys are announced, then the company is far better off than first realized and only getting better. The Divvy is what will drag in all institutional investors and fund managers.  
Bottom line for Monday...Divvies announced, stock goes up on heavy volume. No divvy, Stock tanks. VET stated that it will be up to the board to decide if Divvies are paid starting April. If Divvies are to be paid and increased to say .10 then we are in far a wild ride as the company is far healthier than anyone thought.
I would be very interested to see the calculus of Old Nags calculations based on information we know now vs what will be reported and to see what was either missing in that calculation or what was accurately factored in. It all comes down to what the company reports now!
Good luck to all...we have waited sooooo long!

[gribbs2]

why would the stock drop if they dont announce divvys? i dont think the market is banking on that right now.....

[GregC24]

If you don't understand why you should not be on this board and probably not invested in stocks at all.

[ronster65]

The purpose of he Bullbaord is to allow and afford opinions by anyone. Lets not stiffle opinions by anyone even if they fall short of previously stated information. We all make mistakes. So lets give the poster a break shall we. Lets give even newbies an oppportunity to learn and share.

[Quintessential1]

Because they announced that they would be announcing a divy in their forward guidance and the market banks on them meeting their forward guidance or else the new forward guidance is meaningless. What I am wondering is why anyone would think they would buyback shares when they ahve never mentioned that and they already have a ridiculously low share float.   Don't get me wrong I

[gribbs2]

forgot about the last  guidance , thanks.

[GregC24]

We plan to reinstate a dividend in Q1 2022. Although it is still subject to board approval, our intention is to reinstate a fixed quarterly dividend (5-10% of FFO stress-tested at lower prices including US$55/bbl WTI) while continuing to focus on debt reduction. As further debt targets are achieved we will consider augmenting our return of capital through fixed dividend increases

[Quintessential1]

Touche!  I missed that.  I am still not interested in buybacks.  I think the float is low enough. GLTY and all longs.

[Moemoney42]

They will do at least the 6 cents/quarter as previously tabled.. I wouldn't be surprised to see it higher actually as the metrics have exploded to the upside since the original announcement.. they would be foolish not to.. ;-)