Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

Vet should be $25 dollars and still be producing 16% FCF

[MyHoneyPot]

Q4 2023 Vet had Production of 82727, they had 163,660,0000 share and their debt was
1.242 billion dollars.
 
Fast forward to the end of Q3 2024, we now have production 84,173 boe/day outstanding shares are 155,348,000 and net debt is now 833 million dollars.
 
What a difference a year can make….
                                                                                                                           Start of Q4, 2023
Production increases 1446 boe/day more                                                          1.7%    Less Production
Debt                                      409 million less ($2.63 share less)                        49%     More debt
Shares                                 8,312 million shares                                                5.35%  More shares
Dividend                             Q4 2023 10 cents - Q1 2024 12 cents                      20%    increase divy
 
So VET started out the year with a $16 dollars share price, since then they have.
Increased Production            1.7%
Reduced Debt                       409 million
Bought back                          8.32 million shares
Increased Dividend               20%
 
So, a $16 dollars stock, Production Increase + share buyback = 7% more production share, put every share has $2.63 less debt associated.
 
Share price Jan 1,2024  + production increase + debt reduction
16 + $1.12 + $2.63 = $19.75            (based on production increases, debt reduction, share buybacks)
 
FCF Measure
VET is really making waves in terms of FCF metrics, industry leading metrics that make other companies look bad to be quite honest. (2024 Q3 FCF = $.98 cents a share is an annualized more than 26% return. )
 
Anyway you look at it, VET is simply to cheap and in my opinion should be at least 25 dollars and at that price they would still be returning around 16% FCF

IMHO
MHP

[loopsbutterfly]

Thats why I took more shares at $12,90 gracias    grinnnn....

[loopsbutterfly]

I could add some shares depending of market condition long 20 000 shares fully paid...no margin account gracias    grinnnnn....

[MyHoneyPot]

The way i look at it is this, companies like CVE/VRN are trading closer to 10% FCF, and Vet is trading much higher 26%.  VET between the debt and the share buyback added about $3.75 for every share in terms of balance sheet strength, in the last year, not counting dividends.  So if I buy a ton of 2027 Jan options, the stock should be up $7.50 just on the basis of FCF and how it

[mnztr]

I think there were some elements to that FCFthat were unexpected corract? Lower taxes I think. How repeatable is that good quarter? TTF prices are higher then expected right now.