Post by
retiredengexec on Apr 22, 2020 1:16pm
VII defies Gravity
Condy 3.56 yesterday. WCS 3.81.
TD says Cda needs to cut between 1.2 and 1.7 Mbblpd to balance export demand destruction.
Guess who has to cut? Hmmm, could it be WCS? Yup. As they are all running way below zero after cash costs.
Guess what happens to Condy demand? Rember for every three bbls of WCS that is cut, 1 bbl of Condy is not needed. We could easliy see half of all Condy demand cut.
So why haven'tCdn oil stocks dropped? 1. They were cut to the bone by the market and the market believes its all upside, 2. Cdn producers are slow off the market in announcing big cuts becuase they are activley running scenarios/ or have had their head in the sand and are slow to react. Note the US producers have been way quicker off the mark.
So I hope the answer for Vii's flight is no. 1.
That said said the fit is going to hit the shan in days not weeks vis a vis cuts.