Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

Cold snap pain

[topdown99]

Well retired , no pain , no gain . I would grind through 2 months of -35C smiling if it meant $6 nat gas and $75 oil , lol .

[retiredengexec]

Amen to that bro. 6 dollar gas not likely in our lifetime. Each Marcellus rig drills 12 to 15 wells per year each making between 15 and 20 mmcfpd. The Marcellus is profitable at 2.75 and they can add gas so fast it will make your head spin. The Marcellus went from zero to almost 25 bcfpd in three years. They took over most of the Ontario market which affects AECO. Higher oil prices are possible

[topdown99]

Well I would never argue with you on price or production ($6 was an exaggeration for effect) but maybe you could confirm or deny this . I have heard Marcellus gas is more "shallow" and the well decline rate in the Marcellus is much more rapid than say , the Montney ? Is there any truth to that and if that is the case , it explains the elevated number of wells drilled per rig .  US

[retiredengexec]

LOL. I'm always too literal. I'll check into the Marcellus. For the first time really US Producers have shown some restraint with Covid witness rig counts. Remains to be seen if this is the case as we move forward. The reason I seem so pessimistic is that we have to remember over 9 million barrels per day is off line in the world two from the us and 7.2 from Opec. The good news is that

[regardless]

The big thing I worry about is another Christmas seloff like in 2018.... things weren't bad then and are considerably worst for the wear now ... and im not aure but my gut is signaling this as a possibility... the other thing is we aren't back to pre COVID prices on anything except tech... amd tax loss selling is a real possibility 

[Robertboblaw]

I'm no oil price analyst by any means. $70+ oil is never happening again IMO. Not in the next 5 to 10 years anyways. From the stuff I've seen, OPEC has reserves of dirt cheap oil for decades. My proof: at any point in the last 5 or 6 years, any time oil has gone to ~$70 it lasts for about a few weeks and comes down $10 + in a snap.

[regardless]

Bloomberg reporting 908 billion stimulus comming Monday..... expecting a great rally here 

[topdown99]

Good day retired , nice to hear from you again . US nat gas producers suffered some real pain this past year which sidelined a few of them , I don't think we will see that unbridled drilling again without some massive increase in demand . Something I think we will see more of is restraint as all of OPEC+ countries need at least $60/brl to function .  I do like to still hear pessimistic

[retiredengexec]

Hi Top. Excellent post. Vis a vis the storage numbers we are at 3.85 tcf. To move gas prices the traders/market needs to believe that storage will exit March 32 at 1.2 tcf or less. There are 17 weeks left so we need to see draws of 150 bcf per week. The last week was 91 bcf. To get there we will need large bouts of sustained cold weather across the midwest and northeast. Given the La Nina its not

[topdown99]

OK retired , I'm always game for a good debate , friendly of course . While we have not yet seen any serious cold , I would say that considering the "lost" production from last year has dropped approx 5 to 7 bcf per week . In late May 2020 the inventory (storage) was over 700bcf higher than 2019 levels . Presently the 2020 levels are only 285bcf higher than 1 year ago , this just

[retiredengexec]

Your points on lower q and demand are all correct. That said the storage withdrawal numbers are the final accounting as it were. All I know is that the strip has plummeted in the last few weeks. Jan 2021 has dropped about 45 cents in that time. Lets watch the next 4 reports which will tell us more. When I was in gas marketing they used to call the winter around Feb 1. BTW, La Nina is the one that

[regardless]

I will keep my whim on the markets tomorrow and all the stimulus talk and make a decision to get out of this and a few other energy names , or stay in  Oil has been tight range now for two weeks straight amd the only thing that moves it is stimulus or a huge draw on Tuesday and wednesday...  I don't like the sense I'm getting out here as far as demand is concerned amd I may

[retiredengexec]

You are probably right. Long term oil goes up.

[topdown99]

Your points are valid retired , nat gas trading has turned somewhat negative but I feel it was for a somewhat different reason . From all I heard longs outweighed shorts by 3 to 1 back in Sept/Oct , the larger fund money had been long much earlier and much cheaper . The slow onset of winter gave the big players the perfect opportunity to shake the weaker hands out . Unfortunately now it seems to

[retiredengexec]

Hey top. For sure there are many moving parts and many players with their hand in it. All that said I was surprised at how fast the sentiment changed.

[topdown99]

Nat gas traders default position is always "excess supply" , with the milder fall season and the overweight bullish positions , it was an opportunity the big players lept on . While it sucks in the short term , I see it as more time where production will decline . The longer without any serious drilling , the longer it will take to catch back up .  With healthy LNG exports and even

[retiredengexec]

Fingers crossed eh.

[regardless]

Looks like a big daw of green comming for the market, oul, and gas... let's hope we participate in it 

[regardless]

.........:: aaaaaaaannnnnndddddde... I was wrong  lol

[retiredengexec]

Dont beat yourself up. It's a long war. I used to wonder how Enron made money trading the gas index. Duh because they made the index. Same thing for most stocks. Big traders need volatility. Unless we enter a down draft dont sweat it.