Post by
nicholas on Feb 10, 2021 10:55pm
ARX/VII is at least 10$ per share - probably more soon
This is an excellent deal that combines a conservative company (ARX) and a company with a bit too much debt (VII). It delivers nice cost savings and provides ARX with more torque.
(Posted in the ARX board but I figure this might fit here too now.)
With an investment grade stamp and RBC/CIBC backing, they will be able to print debt at 2% instead of 7% (Tourmaline notes are at 2%). Based on cash flow and debt, I estimated that each share of ARX/VII is worth around 45% of a Tourmaline share (closest competitor now), which is around 10$ per share.
However, I think there is a bigger story there (IMHO); that the big funds will soon be all over this and that the share price increases we recently saw are only starting for TOU and ARX/VII. With ESG being so important nowadays, I think many funds are looking to divest from big oil and will happily move into investment-grade environmentally-friendly natgas entities.
This might put pressure on the smaller players too (PEY, AAV, BIR), as it appears that big money is ready to get in, provided they can be big enough to attract mutual fund money that won't go into small companies.
Comment by
Robertboblaw on Feb 10, 2021 11:14pm
New company will need to do something about either the too high share float or paying back debt. This should be a top priority imo
Comment by
regardless on Feb 10, 2021 11:17pm
Where do you see the price of vii in coming weeks before the merger is approved
Comment by
ABJack on Feb 10, 2021 11:22pm
The way Nat. Gas is going up, transmoutain pipeline operational in a year or so (huge condi demand), cheaper debt service costs. This should be a $15 stock in a year.
Comment by
regardless on Feb 10, 2021 11:24pm
And don't forget that nice 3% dividend