Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Turkey

[JoeCurragh]

I think we could be in danger of losing the Turkey deep gas play licenses. Hope I'm wrong. I don't see how 3 exploration wells can be drilled in time for June '23. There's 6 months until end June 23. It takes time to find and hire a suitable rig. If they do find a suitable rig & assuming all long lead times ordered in time then they've then got to prepare & construct the 3 well pad sites, move the rig onto site and drill the 3 wells (assuming they all go to plan without a hitch). The point of the drilling is to target the deep gas play, which means a min depth of 4500m. It takes approx 2 - 2.5 months to reach that target depth. If one rig started tomorrow then we might be ok for time but that's not happening at moment. See what I mean by how time is running out ? That's assuming we've got the cash to fund the drilling as well. I'm no expert but drill cost could be @ $10-15m per well. We don't have that sort of cash readily available in next 6 months with Thai commitments. I hope someone can tell me I'm wrong. Only hope I see is if Turkish authorities agree to waive 3 exploration well requirements and extend license anyway beyond June 23. Why would a major farm in now when they could probably just wait until June and pick up 100% of license then ?

[Chincy1]

You asked to be told you are wrong so I will tell you you are wrong. 

[JoeCurragh]

Please explain why I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong but I'd like some explanation please. 

[Chincy1]

Re MD&A Turkey The three exploration licences, which hold the Deep Gas Play, have work commitments of geological studies and one exploration well in each licence. Through commercial arrangements with TBNG Limited, the operator of the shallow rights, two of the three commitment wells were drilled in Q3 2022, fulfilling the required work program in those blocks. The total cost to Valeura of

[JoeCurragh]

Great, thanks, I missed that. I'll delete my original post. 

[Hannamuk]

After 5 wells fracked and flowed, interest from others have been minimal last 3 years. So competition not fierce

[smxmcx2]

For those of you who have been around since the Thrace hype, I would think that you realize by now, based on past drilling, Thrace is not commercial.

[SlowAndSteady7]

Maybe be better to say that all 19.7 TCF are not commercial.   Some portion of it very well could be, and it is a very large basin. 1 TCF @ $30/MCF is still a whole lot of cash.   

[DocPat]

I think we have a decent shot at 10TCF in the Thrace (IMHO) .. And if VLE participates to the tune of 25%, we would have north of 60% net in the field. So what's +- 6TCF net to VLE worth in the ground? Doc.

[nozzpack]

So what's +- 6TCF net to VLE worth in the ground? 1 TCF = 170 million barrels of oil equivalent . So, 6TCF is about 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent in situ net to Valuera. EOR probably around 15% , so about 150 million barrels of  recoverable oil equivalent  net to Valeura which @ $75 US per barrel = Approx $2 billion US net in recoverable to Valeura. Highly illustrative

[BERationale]

Turkey makes up sub 5% of the value of VLE now. I get it some legacy shareholders are still hanging on to the dream but what management should really do is sell it for a dollar in order to be a pure play Thailand co. It is just a cost center and if it was commercial they 100% would have found a partner in this gas price environment. Just my two bits but its a distraction for investors and

[SMlachake]

I don't quite agree with some of your points. Neither, I would suggest, by actions and statements, does SG. Let's not forget SG is a PhD geologist, with experience to top. If there is something I can assume about geologists, is that they know how to evaluate value of a land lease. Now, if a company with no other land position was to acquire Thrace, with over $100M spent on exploring the

[Hannamuk]

Even TPAO stays away..  

[Chincy1]

Hannamuk don't make me go back and dig up your post about going back to the Thrace  

[DocPat]

VLE has been very savvy in making their acquisitions and I suspect they have been equally smart on offering the Thrace out to 3rd parties .. that is to say very tough terms until they got their ducks in a row. Now they have the cash to come and play at the table and the rationalle for the deeper dryer gas, it seems to make sense. Certainly worth a shot. Time is also of the essence with natural

[SlowAndSteady7]

Indeed, they are in a much better bargaining position today than they were a few months ago and likely knew they would be throughout whatever negotiations have been ongoing.   Maybe Trillion and VLE should just pair up together with all this FCF they'll both be generating and screw the majors.

[Hannamuk]

Let's see, Turkey is given the name "longer term" now. Thailand has their full attention:-)