Post by
nozzpack on Jan 03, 2023 7:55am
2023 Outlook
Lets summarize the projection @ 21,200 bpd of production net to Valeura, from documentation provided todate at this level assuming $85 US Brent which is approx todays oil price.
Current USD to CAD is approx 1.36.
We have a preclose agreement effective Exit August 2021 that post tax free cash flows will be distributed 50/50 to Mubby and VLE.
Thats at least 5 months free cash flow to the bottom line anounting to $60 m USD = $80 million in CAD .
At exit Sept 2021, we had $22.5 m USD in cash = $30 million CAD.
Thats $110 million in cash less expenses at exit January 2022...and all operating expenses of 21,200 bopd already paid including 9 infill wels .
For computational convenience, I ssume $20 m CAD will be expended during this interim hiatus which leaves $90 CAD = $1 CAD per share in working capital at exit January 2023.
OK, thats the stage we now stand on.
Looking ahead.
We have projected $30 m USD per month pre tax and $24 million per month after tax, with no consideration as to probative forward tax loss pools.
Lets take $30 m US/Month pretax which is $360 million USD equvalent to $490 million CAD.
Thats about $5.40 CAD per share..equivalent to what is termed Ebit
After tax = free cash flow to the bottom line, we will have $288 million US = $390 million CAD potential addition to the cash position.
Some of this will be spent as CAPEX in 2023 but not a lot as 9 infills have already been drilled by Mubby and any spent on Nong Yao will be late in the year.
I use $50 million CAD as easily covering 2023 CAPEX which leaves about $340 m cAD in added cash to about $90 million CADthat t we will already thave at exit January 2023 .
So thats $430 m cad in cash which I will round to $400 million in cash at exit 2023 or about $4.40 per share.
Divide by 2 to be conservative, and it still amounts to $2.20 per share in cash at exit 2023
Note also that as the new 9 infill wells kick in , production is expected to rise to 25000 bpd and to near 30,000 bpd when the KE assets kick in later in 2023.
Comment by
Hannamuk on Jan 03, 2023 8:30am
Or factual regarding the 9 wells stated by Robin Martin: "During the interim period (between effective date and closing), the assets are still managed by the seller, then upon closing there will be an adjustment whereby everything is tabulated including revenue, operating costs, working capital etc. "