Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Some sage advise for management

[Carbonbull]

There is too much uncertainty on the use of cash flow for the investment community to adopt this company as yet. I would suggest that a broad framework be developed and communicated to the market.

Along the lines of :

a) definition of Free cash flow including any cash restrictions by financiers and regulatory officials in Thailand.
b) a limit of XX% to be spent on field expansion drilling 
c)  at least XX% to be returned to shareholders via dividend or share buybacks.
d)  a proforma free cash flow calculation over next three years.


I am long and a believer , the position i sold in KEI north of $7 has been rotated into the offering along with open market accumulation , will be interesting to see if this proves to be the homerun i anticipate.

[firstworld]

They dont need to. Firstly it would box them and and convey plans to regionsal competitors.  The folks who need to know, like the banks etc, have already vetted this. Secondly, they will be hunting additional assets in the region and procurring significant services - the less any one knows the better - they just need to know they will be paid. The USD 30M mth projectd free cashflow plus

[SMlachake]

I  want to believe that most of these details will come at or after Mubby deal closes. As of yet, they are not runnign the company and you would expect their efforts to be more focused on closing than fine detail release to the market. imo, why some are still waiting this out but also why others are X4 up.  However, why would you think there is a cash restrictions from officials in

[Kadiddelhopper]

Has there been a Date or approximation put forward of the anticipated closing on the Mubadala. Deal ?Grandkids yearning for a Spring Trip to Disney!

[BERationale]

Heard from inside the company by the end of February but could be into March.

[Hannamuk]

They "anticipate q1". Check the record when they have used "anticipate"  

[Carbonbull]

VLE balanec sheet is not the same as Mubby , $200 usd is a big number likely to escalate , oil price volatile as we know , from a Thai standpoint would be prudent to have VLE establish a sinking fund of lets say $40 million a year , doesnt effect valuation but i have included this concept in my valuation model still have a mid teen target.

[Carbonbull]

VLE balanec sheet is not the same as Mubby , $200 usd is a big number likely to escalate , oil price volatile as we know , from a Thai standpoint would be prudent to have VLE establish a sinking fund of lets say $40 million a year , doesnt effect valuation but i have included this concept in my valuation model still have a mid teen target.

[goldwatch69]

The cash flow is pretty clear in the PRs and the presentation.  It's a very simple estimate of US$30 million a month with some of it planned for capex as outlined in the presentation.  The rest can be retained earnings for acquisitions, investments and potential dividends.  There was a hint of dividends in the bot deal closing PR. Dividend or not, although more attractive, the

[Kadiddelhopper]

If or when there is a Blackout for the Insiders as was mentionned earlier, can Directors still be selling?. THink perhaps the overhang on the Sell side, is manipulative institutional tasking to scare and corner the cheap shares of the desperate.for their acqui9stion purposes ...seeing a lot of that in at least 3 Companies I follow these last 3 months or so,

[windymayor1]

No.

[Carbonbull]

No, the bottom line is rea lcash return to shareholders. Recent past has destroyed conventional metrics .  If the business plan doesnt include returning cash in a significant fashion I will be out of this play quickly. No matter how astute a management team is they cannot control a commodity curve.  this teamis astute ,and yet they have had significant failures in the past , as have all

[firstworld]

The $100M + bond for the $250M+ clean up liabilities is likely the biggest hurdle and probably the reason for dilutio after "no dilution" a few weeks before.   Its not 2020 when there were many schedule 1s were issueing bonds to cover variour O&G liabilities very cheap.  95% have left the market or reopened under newcos sheathed in secrecy and the price is up close to 1000

[BERationale]

Mubadala had a $12mm bond on the entire asset base and that number is expected to fall for VLE as the field life gets pushed out. Stop spreading BS which I know is hard from your moms basement.  

[firstworld]

LOL Can't compare VLE with paltry 20M cash and $200M market cap with Mubadala backed by Mubadala Soverign Weath Fund with > USD 1/4 T under management haha who probably got the bond in 2015 or before for nearly free. Where as have 1.12% morgage and several MN no recourse unsecured credit 99% of Canadians pay 3-9% mortgage and have max $12K no recourse credit. IMO VLE has to pay min $20M

[Carbonbull]

Not quite as cynical as you are , but very valid points. The remediation is no longer a game of punting down the field to the next company. It is real and certain juristictions are way more strict then others. I have drilled wells in at least 10 countries, as you note so called third worldcountries have better record on this front then Canada and the USA.

[wajac]

You are a Canadian and have proof to support those accusations? If not you should not post such generalities.

[firstworld]

Every international business man knows Canada is the wild west worse than Russia 1990s.  Thats why many firstworld companies and people avoid it and many third world people and companies as well as domestic politicians and locals  love Canada. If youve done seriois business globally witb local cousul on hand you would know the consequences of non compliance.  Canada...100K