Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

CASH

[goldwatch69]

It's all about the cash.  With $105 million working capital after 7 months and a $200 million CAPEX budget, the question becomes how much cash will VLE exit the year with?  

I'm waiting before buying any more.  The $400 million OPEX/CAPEX budget doesn't include royalties and tax.  With oil down, 20000 bopd leaves about $200 million pretax cash after CAPEX using the 51% formula and deducting $200 million CAPEX and adding current working capital.   After tax would be $100 million left and this is a 12 month projection, not 9.  Nine months would be less.  Not enough for me right now.

[Suppe11]

Don't know how often you want deduct capex...mc is around US 180m. End of year net cash >mc. Not enough ? I guess, your portfolio of stocks has the counter at zero. I guess, end of 2023 their net cash will be at least around $200m (depending on the price of oil).

[SlowAndSteady7]

Around $200M at end of CY23 in cash. Around $435M at end of CY24 in cash. (assuming CAPEX drops back to a more reasonable $120M/y after Nong Yao expansion in CY23 + tax credits for all Thailand III assets in CY24) Not bad for a $217M company. I'm sure Hannamuk will throw these numbers back in my face at some point, but based on what they have told us, this is what they are predicting.

[Suppe11]

Your numbers are Us$....your 217m company is C$....

[SlowAndSteady7]

My numbers were in C$, except capex in usd

[AucontraireII]

I think too that sometimes we forget that as much as he could, Sean practically guaranteed more deals coming.  Those are not priced in at all.  We play a stock like this for its potential as well.

[firstworld]

they have 5 yes of deal pipeline lets hope they are on a roll snowball to avalanche would be great!

[goldwatch69]

CAPEX deducted ince in many calculations.   20000 bopd at 80 for 9 months, 270 days from now to year end amounts to US$432 million gross revenue assuming all is sold. Less about US$400 million OPEX and CAPEX from the guidance in the PR leaves US$32 million... but what about royalties? This number is no good. The royalties and OPEX estimate in January was 49%. So basically half the US

[Suppe11]

The Q1 capex (34m?) and the 4 months capex of the past year is already included in the 105m wc balance and of course royalties are included. Further included is the tax liability for Q1 and to some extent for Q2.

[goldwatch69]

The PR states full year guidance for OPEX and CAPEX, yet the statements imply future capital spending of $180 million to $200 million.   True, the working capital  Is after tax. Assuming that all expenses are deducted, that leaves the $105 million as free cash flow.  Note that there is no SG&A mentioned anywhere. If the $34 million is included in 2023 CAPEX,  roughly

[Suppe11]

Your calculations have a flaw again. You deducted the capex from the after tax cash, but the capex is tax deductable (most of it instant through D&A). The Wassana oil should be pretty much tax free for now.

[SlowAndSteady7]

Wassana is 100% tax free thanks to Kris Energy tax losses.

[goldwatch69]

CAPEX is not tax deductible and I only deducted remaining CAPEX from the 9 months of cash flow.  What planet are you from?  CAPEX has to be depreciated. It's not a full tax deduction and its a minor deduction in comparison to the 100s of millions in revenue and expenses.  We will see what May 11th brings.

[Suppe11]

I'm from the planet, where the capex is depreciated over time....it's deductible. Via the D&A instant (though it's past capex/assets in reality) and if you overspend your D&A, you'll have to wait. D&A should be at least 100m for the year....on my planet. May brings nothing, you can see something in the balance sheet and a few days of operation in the earnings statement

[firstworld]

amateur acountants and financial pol did not hedge who knows what they'll do....better get some professionals instead of pencil pushers.

[goldwatch69]

You alluded to CAPEX being fully tax deductible  It's not tax deductible.  The asset depreciation is.  I don't know where you're getting $100 million depreciation from. Out of thin air or out of a hat? In January, Research Capital forecasted 85 cents a share based on a lot less CAPEX.  The expenses are high this year.  It will take longer than expected no

[Overertune]

You are not making any sense.  

[Suppe11]

You invest capex in assets...assets rise in value...and over time you write the value down. It's not that difficult. You assumed zero D&A for the year, I assumed $100m...let's just see, who is right...little spoiler...it's me. 85 Cent what ? Earnings per share ? Capex is off the income statement (you can see it in the cf statement).