Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

The set up...Wink Wink...

[Gringotts]

Looks like VLE is setting up for another lousy day.

VLE will only produce 22,000 barrels of oil today and sell it for about $84.00 US a barrel for 
$1, 848, 000 US or $2,420,880.00 CA. Boy, does that ever look terrible.
Wink, Wink....

[firstworld]

I guess the fact they were supposed ro be at 25K bbl day before blowing $100M on infill drilling spooked many.  Overall the whole tging is very precarious at best.  The 18M the blew on locating bronze class management to Singapore in a Platinium class scheme reeks of betterment and corruption so that probably tirned off many gamblers.

[BERationale]

Agreed the fundamentals look strong. At on $80/bbl brent price they generated CAD$95mm of cash flow a quarter or CAD$380mm annually on CAD$220mm of capex ... equates to CAD$160mm of free cash flow. Together with CAD$120mm of current cash is CAD$280mm of cash by Q2 2024. On a CAD$220mm mkt cap that would equate to a NEGATIVE EV of CAD$60mm.  Another way to look at it is CAD$160mm of free cash

[Overertune]

The only problem is the cash flow is not sustainable.  VLE has to make another acquisition with proven reserves so the PE can adjust to 5.

[BERationale]

They are turning probables and contingent resource into proved reserves everyday with their drilling program. Agreed if they didn't spend any money it would not be sustainable but their revised downward capex and flat guidance speaks to the efficiencies they are seeing and the sustainability of cash flows. That coupled with pushing out abandonment liabilities and utilizing the Kris tax pools

[firstworld]

its meaningless unkess they pau out 80% of net profits to SH  because until they get a new reserves study done based on extensive new seismic and / or new modelling of old data this is just and end of life reserves getting squeezed for every last drop rendering it speculative at best. With no divs and no bankable reserves looking out 25 years VLE is only functioning as a cash and wealth

[energee]

I agree with the reserve conversions. PUDs or probables to PDP.  It is blatently obvious that the prior reserve asessments from the prior third-party engineering firm were not relevant to reality - given the results on the Jasmine field which has produced more than10X the original reserve assignment. The oil is there. Looking forward to a real reserve report at year end.  Exploitation

[Suppe11]

I don't know, what you guys are talking about. NO finite ressource is sustainable. EVERY oilers inventory will come to an end. So the question, you should ask is: What's the value ? Sure, you can buy the peers with permanent overleverage/debt, who recycle the equity, to let the music play a little longer...the problem with "little longer" is...one day, they will stumble into an

[BERationale]

Of course inventory will eventually come to an end but current 3P reserves stand at 36mmbbls and with contingent 58mmbbls so if they are successful converting these to proved reserves that means they have a 4-7 year reserve life (at 9mmbbls a year). That's ~$650Mn to $1.1Bn of free cash flow over that time frame or $6.50 to $11.00 a share of cash. The assets have shown stable production and

[firstworld]

If oil drops to $60 bbl there is zero free cash flow 

[Suppe11]

I'm sure, you can tell me the free cashflowing peers at $60...Aoi...yes, because they produce nothing, but Prime would go bankrupt with 60 for longer.

[firstworld]

Like VLE, AOI entitled production is via subsidiary.  VLE and AOI produce nothing.  Both are approx 22K bbl day and  est $100M yr opcosts.  VLE has declining end of life fields while AOI has Prime Nigeria good for 20+ years + Namibia. Prime while having nearly CAD $500M cash and $750M debt would be abke to sustain several years $60bbl oil, and in fact have done so. AOI is

[Suppe11]

Not unusual in the oil industry (or everywhere), to act with subsidaries, especially offshore. No, Prime is not a subsidary of Aoi, they just have a 50% interest = full double overhead. Cash is $217 m, debt 740m, cf negativel, no or very small divis in the next 1-2 years for Aoi. And of course noone will pay Impact 1.7b for 20% of a hole in the ground. The game is: Total will cashcall Impact to

[firstworld]

Nomone knows VLEs corp structure or shaes ownerships in the various corps its li,ely VLE does not own Thailans but indirectly via odd shore...regarless AOI Namibia play is est 5B bbl which they can easily sell their stake once confirmed Greenfield Namibia plus long play Nigeria  VS end of life Thialand ....place the bets.  One thing for sure AOI SP has sustained over 3 far lo ger the

[Suppe11]

"Easy to sell" hahaha...when was the last time an explorer got serious cash for an undeveloped Wi ? Must be a decade ago, maybe Aoi itself with the Kenia stuff. Only the big boys can afford it and do you see the big boys shopping around for minority Wi ? Must be old movies. The core business (=only Nigeria) is fairly to slightly overvalued atm, Imho. Even if Valeura can only harvest

[firstworld]

If start up VLE can raise $150M from supermajor for hot air in Turkey then Im sure AOI can get a few $B for its share of $500B  oil off shore Namibia as global minority exits N. Sea, Canada, and other oil markets to former colonies who'd rather do businesss with RU and CN in any currency other than USD. Kenya was very unfortunate and very similar to W. Canada only the poor govt didnt

[firstworld]

They generated a net loss and a huge lifestyle upgrade at SH expense LOL....nothing to see here except betterment and corruption VIS an opaque web of offshore entities ....usual story dating back to 2020 when they sold Thrace shallows at 80% discount to recent appraised value to a newco offshore while they had $50M in bank and no need for distress transaction pricing.  This may all ne normal