Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Didn't hear about this company until recently

[Rational43]

I'm a fairly active investor in Canadian oil and gas, have been for a long time (late 90's).  If I hadn't heard about Valeura, than the vast majority of major investors have not heard about it either.  
I was tipped off by another small cap energy specialist about $2.70, glad I was.  
This, at the risk of a crazy take, has 5 - 10 bagger potential.  There is a path to $4 US per share CF in 2024 just based on Thai assets.  Turkey is a wait and see for me...don't assign value to it currently.  

$4 US per share CF should be worth $12 US, or $15 CAD.

Now, with some additional drilling success, and increased production, and high oil prices, its not unreasonable to see $6 US per share CF....and a target price getting near $30 CAD.  That scenario is a lot of things going right, but its not absurd.  
Especially if they add production with all the cash on the balance sheet, that is accumulating.

As for it being below $10 CAD, that's just people not knowing about it.  But they are finding out.

[Overertune]

How do you get that 4$ CF per share?

[Chincy1]

Very basic back of the napkin math; company has publicly stated that with current production, roughly 20,000 b/d, add in wassana getting back online and new drilling there offering some growth lets say they can get that to 5000 b/d, and then add in growth from Nong Yoa C, say 3000 b/d that gets us to a very doable 28,000 b/d for q1/q2 2024. 28,000 b/d at $95 brent is 970M USD 28,000 b/d with a

[Overertune]

Pretax 4.5$ excluded capex? After tax should be 2.5$ only?

[windymayor1]

That's what they did in Q-2 '23 on $70mm CF. Auctus has 2024 at US $4.36/sh CF on 25k production. nice #s either way.  

[BERationale]

I peg them at $400mm of after tax cash flow at $90 brent and 22.5k boe/d which is a conservative avg with Wassana. Assuming $150mm of sustaining capex that's $2.50 of FREE cash flow to go the shareholders. Together with the $1.00 of net cash on the current balance sheet, it is currently valued at 1x forward FCF. That's a stupidly cheap valuation! GLTA

[firstworld]

There is nomvisibility into decline rates in this end of life play.  We do know they opcost $350M yr  just to maintain the dream of 25K bbl day and close to $275K for current 20k bbl day, plus overhead $100M +/- yr for luxury expat Singapore packages and web of opaque offshore companies with supporting professional services. Thats 25% overhead when it should be 7% max haha... Dont

[windymayor1]

OP costs r $28/barrel constant and thats at $75 oil At $93 oil they r making an extra $164mm/yr.   Very much ahead of the game.  Mkting is obviously going well in the UK.  North America next.  Expect institutions to continue to accumulate.  Decommissioning will be delayed as the RLI extends out. #1 pick by far. ,  

[Suppe11]

Operating costs are higher. In Q2 they sold inventory...scale= more bbls, lower operating costs. I guess, they sold around 180,000 bbls more, than produced...then you can deduct a further 180,000 bbls for Q3 (-> without Wassana). Operating costs will come in well over $30 in Q3. Also keep in mind, that they sell their oil not daily. This is offshore. They sell their oil in cargos (=500k bbl or

[Suppe11]

Wassana is a staged approach with something like 1.4 k bpd in Q4. They don't drill there...they drill Nong Yao, so the 3-4k there should be reasonable...though it takes time too. The average for Q1/Q2 will be under 25k bpd (-> declines). Your fcf projection is far off...maybe cf, but not free. 

[goldwatch69]

FCF is after tax and CFO is before tax From Q2 report,  I'm seeing CFO at 40% of revenue at US$80 a barrel and FCF at approx. 50% of CFO At US$95 a barrel, the extra $15 is pure CFO which is another US$7.50 FCF a barrel... let's make that US$8 as CFO is actually a bit more than 50% and Brent is a bit higher,  not to mention that VLE gets a couple bucks premium to market price.

[windymayor1]

Cdn analysts do not use FCF in their target price calculations. They use CF from operations of Funds Flow from operations. Newman at Research Capital has a $8.25 target based on 1.8x  2024 debt adjusted cashflow forecast. 

[BERationale]

The smart Analysts / money does use FCF (no offense to Newman) and VLE should use that in their favor. If for instance they had $500mm of cash flow from ops but have to spend $500mm on drilling to maintain flat production would you still want to use a CF metric? Cash flow from Ops is what promoters use to fool the retail investor. FCF yields and multiples are what they focus should be and at $3.50

[Stockwizard10]

What's coming here is going to blow the doors off. Good luck Firstworld 

[firstworld]

Its a great ride reminds of of 2017Q4 and 18Q1 before SP collapsed. Swing trades are amazing now that it has decent volme 50-100K shares is an easy flip. Waiting for ball to drop and SP collapse.  Muba dumped this for pennies for a reason , they have exponentially more resources than the startup VLE. Need to know decline rates on  this end of life play.

[traderlong2]

Such a shame you missed the boat FW keep trashing this i am sure you can bring on a colapse lol big money rolling in now next stop 5 bucks glta