Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Research Capital Analyst Update today

[windymayor1]

IMPACT: Wassana Reserves Additions Extend field life beyond 2030.

Although VLE’s Thailand assets are mature, we see the potential for a significant life

extension through additional development and appraisal drilling. We believe a contingent

resource report could quantify some of the remaining upside. Longer life reserves should

also push any realized abandonment liabilities, well into the future. In addition, with

the substantial free cash flow generated from these assets, we expect VLE to quickly

build up a large cash resource, that can be redeployed into maintaining and growing

production from its current assets, or into an acquisition of longer life assets, or returned

to shareholders through a dividend and share buy back program. We reiterate our BUY

recommendation and $8.25 target price equivalent to a 1.8x multiple of our 2024 debt-

adjusted cash flow forecast.

[Toppicks1]

Seems about right 8.25 price target. But that would assume no new projects.

[firstworld]

Comparing to AOI, who also has 20-25 K bbl day, albeit in a long term healthy reserve, with 400M shares float, trading at 3.35 a year ago before Namibia 5 B bbl it seems VLE should be 8-10 now especially since went to 7 on hot air in Turkey. The only reason its not is the $150M rip off of BG and Equinor in Turkey then 5 years later multiple material missteps plus massive integrity issues with 20%

[Suppe11]

Aoi actually has 20k bpd 18% Ng and the mc is 3-4 times higher. The 6% Namibia is actually a liability, if it's commercial at all. Big cashcalls...5 times overhead...Aoi, Prime, Impact, Eog, Afe... The Valeura company today and Valeura 5 years ago has exactly zero in common, with Valeura today.

[firstworld]

VLE has same managment as 2017/18 except some of the folks who bought Turkey shallows via offshore & proxy directors at 90% discount to newco have left. There is now a new web of opaque offshores with proxy directors at VLE. AOI is 20K bbl day trading in $10-14 range if they have same share float as VLE. Namibia is not even in AOI SP but 6% of 5B bbl world highest quality crude is anything