Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Wassana

[energee]

Just need to return Wassana to prod. If the ship is there "fill her up".

[Overertune]

How much will wassana produce?  Adding nong Yao, can VLE reach 30000 production q1 2024?

[goldwatch69]

Q1 or Q2.  More like 27,000 bopd.  Wassana could become a 10,000 bopd field with the new wells planned. That would mean 30,000 bopd without Manora. Jasmine      9000 Nong Yao  11000 Wassana   10000 Total.          30000 Strong Buy!

[Suppe11]

You guys put the bar much too high, which will only produce frustration. At Wassana, they produced around 2000 bpd the last time and will take a staged approach now. So be prepared for something like 1000 bpd in the beginning. Actually they should be around 19k bpd....they're still short, because of the 2 Wassana "wild cats". If they can get their act together with Wassana, they

[goldwatch69]

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Take a look at Sean's targets. Do your homework and think twice before spewing your nonsense on this board. First of all, Wassana was producing 2400 barrels per day when output was stopped. According to the Jan 2023 presentation, the planned target was 4500 bopd for Wassana.  With the new discovery, Wassana is expected to last well

[Suppe11]

I did my homework and you a) got no clue b) didn't read my post carefully. Wassana is no water tap, which you can switch on and off. No way you'll see 2400 in Q4. Yes, planned target for it was something like 4000, I said it and it should be the limit of the production unit there. And guess what ? You need to drill wells for it....takes time. Yes, the Nong Yao expansion will bring a few

[goldwatch69]

One of us is right. We will see what the next 3 quarters bring and the next operational update.   21000 to 22000 bopd as soon as Wassana is back on in Q4 27000 bopd once Yong Nao is extended and Wassana original target achieved Q1-Q2 30000+ bopd once Wassana has more wells added in the newly discovered zone likely in Q2 is my guess. We shall see if I'm right. Another deal like

[Suppe11]

I would be happy with any bbl above 20k bpd for Q4, but I fear, we will come in below....Wassana is already late to the show here. For Q1 I expect for sure >20k, but not much contribution from Nong Yao expansion, it's more a Q2 booster and they'll have a lot of work to do there. From then on, pretty much all bets are off, but my bet is, that they can't push it over 25k with just

[Overertune]

Will capex increase a lot with additional rigs?

[Suppe11]

Just a very wild guess (depends a lot on the dayrate of the rig). The sustaining capex with 1 rig should be around 80-100m a year. If we take that as a ballpark and maybe substract some synergies for a second rig....maybe 40-60m ? I don't want to research it now, but they first planned with two rigs...and gave a capex number...substract the 75-80m Nong Yao stuff and it should come close. But

[goldwatch69]

About US$15 million per quarter  https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/valeura-likes-borr-jack-up-extends-rig-s-charter/2-1-1473483

[firstworld]

Its OPEX. $150M yr / rig min that shows up for work with LC or SBLC payment guarantees for 100% for contract value.  Thats why VLE had to drop the 2nd rig - could not come up with the guarantee.  They wont be able to gaurantee 2nd rig payment when lost 6M in Q3 at $87 oil.  No one in the world gives canadian companies credit....too many scams.

[moneysworth]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Carbonbull]

Welcome your thoughts , they are certainly worthy of consideration, they of course are based on your bias towards limited resource for recovery , would love to hear more of your thoughts as to why , given the outperformance over the years. My own bias is that the various fields are complex , not enough work from a seismic view has been undertaken , hence a cognitive bias on behalf of the RE. I do

[Suppe11]

Meant me ? My opinion is easy...as long as I see a good chance that the book value and/or cash is higher, than the market cap, I capped my risk. That's all I need to know. I'll take any longer production as predicted as a free (big) upside, so I don't really care.