Valeura Energy Inc T.VLE

Listened to Webcast on Sunday

[Carbonbull]

take away points:

1) production now at 24k a day 
2) pricing better then brent 
3) potential for another 3K a day later in year 
4) assuming an average production profile of 25k + 
5) should FCF north of 55m a month


Outliers 

1) decison to expand W
2) potential accretive acquisition
3) low chance of dividend or share buyback

[Carbonbull]

sorry thats 55m a quarter

[Suppe11]

You confused the revenue numbers with the fcf numbers....totally off. Pricing most probably won't be above Brent, but with a $2-3 penalty to Brent. Only Nong Yao has light sweet crude, the rest is medium sweet crude or a mix. If you compare it with the average Brent pricing (like VLE does), it depends on the timing of the cargos = a illusion of a premium, because the timing was nice. Without

[Suppe11]

Ah ok, I see you meant 55m fcf per Q...which is of course more reasonable, though I don't think, they can get there with the actual oil prices/production.

[Suppe11]

All my numbers are US$ btw....

[moneysworth]

Hmmm...... why bother sticking around here if you're honestly so negative going forward?  Obviously you now realize you've sold your shares way too soon, and are determined to work hard trying to spin things to fit your agenda,...so you can reload once again...LOL. :)

[Suppe11]

Yawn...agenda, short seller, leave the long church. Why do you comment on a reality check, if you're not interested in the reality ? Are you long and have fear, that the stock will go down and you realize, that you missed the top ? No you work hard, trying hard to spin things, to fit your agenda ? Jokes aside, I know Vle very well, I'm still interested in the stock and I already discussed

[bfw]

  Are you long and have fear, that the stock will go down and you realize, that you missed the top ? The stock literally closed at a 52 week high yesterday. I'm not sure how he would have missed the top? Menawhile, oil prices are continuing to grind higher today with Brent trading near $89. So revenue estimates are moving higher. Dont't confuse *your analysis* with reality

[Suppe11]

Where did I spin the purchase negative ? The stock swinged between 4.90-5.xx, so pretty easy, to miss the top. Btw. it's not about missing THE top exactly, roughly is enough. Anyway, according to your dreams, it's a buy every day, because it will go to C$ 10...if you think, you'll buy low now...go for it. I got another opinion, if I'm allowed to...you would buy the top (for some

[bfw]

  I suggest you listen carefully to the conference call. They discuss the tax reorganization. You'll find your answer there.  Your words regarding the equipment purchase. "and the eyeopening bummer, that they paid 20m forvthe vessel in Q1 and $70+m taxes in May." As for oil, it often rises in to the summer due to the US driving season. No reason to suspect