Post by
Anschutz on Dec 17, 2020 10:07am
The Trump effect
Something I see no one in the media or investment community talking about is the influence Trump has had over the price of oil over the last four years. With Trump now effectively removed from office, who can we expect to tweet that the price of oil is too high or to call on MBS to increase oil production. Answer... "no one".
Saudi's have made it clear they want the price of oil higher. Russia and the other despot regimes want the price of oil higher. Biden and democrats want the price of oil higher to increase the amount of taxes collected. Environmental groups, organizations and businesses want the price of oil higher to support the illusion that green tech is economical.
With Trump the key influencer now removed and many more powers now pushing for higher prices, it looks to me like the oil price run has just begun. I think we see WTI hit $50 within the next 2 weeks. Followed by a pull back heading into the January OPEC meeting in effort to prevent production increases. The price of oil will then rise and accelerate higher after Biden's inaugeration.
That's how I'm playing it. If you are waiting on the sidelines for a pullback you may get a chance early in the new year. The question I suppose is how much higher will Canadian E&Ps march higher in the next 2 to 3 weeks and will any small pull back in the price of oil have a significant impact on share prices for having waited to buy in.
Comment by
Bpultra on Dec 17, 2020 10:13am
The other thing that is going to happen is more conflict... already seen a couple oil wells on fire.. a tanker hit ... really surprised NK has not launced a rocket yet... so this could also keep oil moving.. ============
Comment by
LoneWolf3579 on Dec 17, 2020 10:16am
Wow Anschutz lately you and I have been on the same page. This is a very well thought out anaysis and totally rational. It may seem obvious in hindsight but it makes sense
Comment by
Anschutz on Dec 17, 2020 12:50pm
Just calling it like I see it. I know I'm not the only one. Let's see how long our views remain aligned... LOL.
Comment by
Chad123 on Dec 17, 2020 10:29am
Well said. Very good post.
Comment by
Moemoney42 on Dec 17, 2020 10:52am
I agree Anshutz... a lot of dynamics at play and seems stars are lining up for a trend continuation as of late... thus I think the reason for the selling pressure lately.. big money sees the opportunity and wants to use the last of the levers for 2020 to build/increase a position before this theory plays out.. good call.. thats the way I'm playing it as well.. ;-)
Comment by
Mrlongpants on Dec 17, 2020 3:19pm
Said this before Trump is no good for oil companys especially foreign oil.Canada included. Trump doesn't like long time standing alies. GLTALongs.
Comment by
Mrlongpants on Dec 17, 2020 6:42pm
I forgot to mention he preferres Russa,China ,North Korea ,Saudi Arabia and Iran over the worlds allies. i am not making this up. What kind on an American is he. A Trader?We Will not Give oil away .,4 years of the American President holding the Canadian economy hostage.. and those who voted for him should wake up. GLTALongs.