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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Veren Inc T.VRN

Alternate Symbol(s):  VRN

Veren Inc. is a Canada-based oil producer with assets in central Alberta and southeast and southwest Saskatchewan. The principal activities of the Company are acquiring, developing and holding interests in petroleum and natural gas properties and assets related thereto through a general partnership and wholly owned subsidiaries. Its core operational areas include Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta... see more

TSX:VRN - Post Discussion

Veren Inc > Timing in oil sector can make or break you.
View:
Post by PUNJABI on Mar 27, 2021 2:33pm

Timing in oil sector can make or break you.

If you want to make money in the stock market educate yourself and become very objective and learn to time the markets correctly.  There is nothing like buy and hold long-term investors unless you are very young and time is on your side and you don’t want big returns in short term. 
 
The oil sector is very complex with massive fluctuations. Everything depends on the oil prices and there are so many factors that influence oil prices. I think the oil sector is changing very fast and will be different in 10 years when combustion engine restrictions are imposed in many cities and countries.  Things can change earlier if there is a bigger break though in car batteries. Some of the institutional investors have refused to invest money in oil. The flow of money is reducing in the sector so the level of investments will drop too and the supply may be impacted.
 
While investing in the oil sector one has to see and understand the large picture of the oil sector.  I consider Oil as a rotating sector. Sell and get out in a declining trend and when the time is right and there are indications of reversal like there was time to load up when all oil stocks were destroyed and priced for bankruptcy.  
 
 The shareholders that were fully invested and did not get out in time and could not reload or average down at the bottom because they were sitting on huge losses or did not have cash did not benefit from huge lifetime opportunities in the oil sector. Swings in stocks were massive. Some stocks have rebounded back 5 to 9 times from the bottom.  Some long-term shareholders are still sitting on huge losses when others had timed the market and have made a fortune.  You don’t have to catch the bottom or the top just the part of the trend in time. At times it requires courage and understanding of the commodity cycle.
 
Staying with the trend and commodity cycle is important and so is managing exposure.  One should learn to benefit from them and have a plan.  There are quite a few techniques.
 
Eric Natull Indicator :

E. Nutall is a smart professional investor in the field of oil. He is knowledgeable and understands the sector and has access to more research and contacts with Oil CEOs. He is better informed than most and especially retail investors. Because he has a decent amount of funds and buys and sells oil stocks so one needs to follow him too but carefully.  He buys and sells a decent number of shares so he impacts the share price in short term. The impact on small float stocks is huge.
 
The problem with Nutall is that he has his own agenda and he will always pump oil and the stocks that he has already bought. He will talk selectively about the factors that help and promote his agenda and would omit to mention the shortcoming. He paints an exaggerated bullish picture that benefits him.  He will continue to pump oil sector even when it is time to exit the oil sector. His livelihood depends on a bullish outlook for oil.
 
 He will never bash oil and the stocks that he owns and find the weakness in the stocks that he does not own. So when listening to him you should discount some of the exaggerations. He is a trader he is in and out of stocks constantly and will change his tune often.
 
 He makes big mistakes too. Not too long ago he was heavily invested in US oil stocks that did not do well. The pumping on the Canadian channel did not help and his selection of stocks did not work out. He is now mostly in Canadian stocks.
 
 Nutall indicator can be used to our advantage and one should benefit from his research,  One should try to buy these stocks before he pumps them. You can find his top 10 stock list in the fund prospectus on the website. Track his holding and when the size of the holding drops or it is all gone then it means he has sold it. If a new stock shows up then he has added a new position and will be pumping his top holdings.  He is always rotating.
 
He exploits and uses the market call to his benefit. You have to be smart enough to figure out the Nutall indicator and use it to your advantage.
 
 
Learn to perform proper DD and fundamental analysis. Look at debt to cash flow and debt ratios. The decline rate of the oil company. Cost of production and the current oil prices and the size of the hedges and their prices. Learn about the stock you are invested in. You should know every weakness about it.
 
 
Learn technical analysis: Moving average gives you the tend of the sector and stock. There are all kinds of other indicators. RSI is my favorite. Gives overbought and oversold signals. Simple and very reliable.


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Short Positions for CPG in Canada only


Symbol Report Date Volume Change Shares Issued % Float
T : CPG 2021-03-15 10,669,395 -3,014,295 530,364,516 2.01
T : CPG 2021-02-28 13,683,690 -599,405 530,364,516 2.58
T : CPG 2021-02-15 14,283,095 -3,424,937 530,364,516 2.69
T : CPG 2021-01-31 17,708,032 -2,151,703 530,035,922 3.34
T : CPG 2021-01-15 19,859,735 1,158,799 530,035,922 3.75
T : CPG 2020-12-31 18,700,936 -920,973 530,035,922 3.53
T : CPG 2020-12-15 19,621,909 1,358,625 530,035,922 3.70
T : CPG 2020-11-30 18,263,284 -2,174,957 530,035,922 3.45
T : CPG 2020-11-15 20,438,241 711,690 529,734,597 3.86
T : CPG 2020-10-31 19,726,551 4,550,861 529,734,597 3.72


House Positions for C:CPG from 20210326 to 20210326
House Bought $Val Ave Sold $Val Ave Net $Net
2 RBC 2,691,267 13,845,903 5.145 1,690,777 8,715,542 5.155 1,000,490 -5,130,361
85 Scotia 328,774 1,679,590 5.109 230,097 1,182,224 5.138 98,677 -497,366
88 Credential 86,872 448,333 5.161 7,128 36,516 5.123 79,744 -411,817
39 Merrill Lynch 94,500 485,668 5.139 22,300 115,190 5.165 72,200 -370,478
77 Peters 50,000 257,819 5.156 0   50,000 -257,819
9 BMO Nesbitt 187,848 964,128 5.132 182,064 937,009 5.147 5,784 -27,119
212 Virtu 4,433 22,627 5.104 205 1,054 5.141 4,228 -21,573
72 Credit Suisse 18,700 95,028 5.082 18,700 95,756 5.121 0 728
59 PI 0   250 1,275 5.10 -250 1,275
36 Latimer 112 571 5.098 431 2,231 5.176 -319 1,660
57 Interactive 0   500 2,590 5.18 -500 2,590
19 Desjardins 30,550 155,519 5.091 31,221 159,785 5.118 -671 4,266
55 Velocity 0   1,000 5,100 5.10 -1,000 5,100
65 Goldman 105 538 5.124 1,564 8,195 5.24 -1,459 7,657
35 Friedberg 0   1,500 7,710 5.14 -1,500 7,710
48 Laurentian 0   1,600 8,192 5.12 -1,600 8,192
56 Edward Jones 0   2,546 13,099 5.145 -2,546 13,099
80 National Bank 74,396 382,043 5.135 77,362 397,359 5.136 -2,966 15,316
70 Manulife 0   3,468 17,668 5.095 -3,468 17,668
13 Instinet 6 30 5.00 4,825 24,844 5.149 -4,819 24,814
89 Raymond James 0   5,799 29,744 5.129 -5,799 29,744
33 Canaccord 9,298 47,722 5.133 16,792 86,198 5.133 -7,494 38,476
5 Penson 50,887 260,750 5.124 60,436 309,306 5.118 -9,549 48,556
124 Questrade 9,743 49,629 5.094 20,161 103,121 5.115 -10,418 53,492
14 ITG 45,300 230,072 5.079 57,400 294,051 5.123 -12,100 63,979
1 Anonymous 2,036,732 10,437,869 5.125 2,255,705 11,530,569 5.112 -218,973 1,092,700
7 TD Sec 908,271 4,636,508 5.105 1,200,640 6,162,170 5.132 -292,369 1,525,662
79 CIBC 2,012,981 10,323,267 5.128 2,308,030 11,829,931 5.126 -295,049 1,506,664
53 Morgan Stanley 491,147 2,517,421 5.126 929,421 4,764,604 5.126 -438,274 2,247,183
TOTAL 9,131,922 46,841,035 5.129 9,131,922 46,841,033 5.129 0 -2
Comment by Bpultra on Mar 27, 2021 4:57pm
Great post... and I have said on here a few times if you trade oppooooosite  of Eric and other talking heads .. because they talk thier book you will beat the avearge 
Comment by Backinblack1000 on Mar 27, 2021 5:10pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by Moemoney42 on Mar 27, 2021 6:14pm
I agree with you're analysis of Mr. Nuttal.. he's an astute investor and moves in and out to make a return in a tough sector.. I've said that many times when he would get discredited on these BB's.  As far as the timing in the sector goes.. that's exactly why I committed and extra 100G. to the markets last March when the prices were extremely depressed.. timing was ripe ...more  
Comment by PUNJABI on Mar 27, 2021 7:36pm
A good time was when the whole sector was totally destroyed and stocks dropped to ridiculous levels. Some companies did not survive but the other companies that were  not at risk of bankruptcy were a screaming buy. There was a lot of value in the entire sector. That is why some stocks have multiplied 5 to 9 times. In the beginning, one has to be invested in the stocks that had more tork ...more  
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