Veren Inc T.VRN

Maybe this stock's fair value is $5.53 at $73 oil.

[JamesT]

Nothing more nothing less. A potential dividend increase is already factored into the share price based on the price of oil and CPG's management's ability to issue a dividend. The prospect of this stock going back to $20+ is non existant since in 2014 people were worried about peak oil with no conversations about oil demand peaking. Shale oil taught investors that oil supply will is plentiful with a higher price point and thus keeping cap on oil prices. 

The best we can hope for is perhaps this stock to go over $6 @ $76 WTI, $6.50 @ $80 WTI, $7.50 @ $90 WTI. Maybe we will move up over $10 if oil stays above $80 consistently for 1-2 years (highly unlikely). Maybe this stock will get a bump of $0.50 with a worthwhile dividend increase.

The downside on the other hand, if oil goes below $70, this stock will most likely move under $5, $4.50 @ $65, and god forbid wti goes below $60.

Why would anyone think differently given we've been rangebound at around $5.50 even though WTI increased by 10 bucks over the last couple of months?

[Bpultra]

=================== yap just a frustrating stock.... and why the shorters love it!!!  So while you wait you have to trade this dog... and make your own div... one day the insiders may figure it out and do something for the shareholders... but don't hold your breath or you will turn blue .. the shorters still own this puppy... 

[LiquidOctopusV2]

People might think differently because as early as last October this stock was trading in the $1.50 range.  That's not that long ago.  It's been stuck between approx $4.70 and $5.70 since mid-March.  And, that's why the arguments on this board are getting so repetitive.  Nobody has much to say.  Even though people are worried - right now - about peak oil (and

[Moemoney42]

I agree Liquid.. the market is still in the show me stage.. unfortunenatley I don't think Q2 numbers are going to do it as the hedges have created a bit of a head wind for this quarter.. that plus the one time costs of closing Kaybob the numbers could be a bit disappointing..  I'm looking to Q3, Q4 and next year to really see the numbers and FCF ramp up.. that I believe will

[Marty57]

I will be hanging on to my shares for a couple years and we'll see how things play out.  IMO, the day to day noise of stock price ups and downs that we are seeing will be nothing compared to the impact of the tailwinds that blow in our favour: 7 years of underinvestment worldwide in oil E&P Aging Fields in traditional oil producing countries (see Daqing, Cantarell, and

[LiquidOctopusV2]

Do you have any idea if there is a way to find metrics on whether or not they're accumulating? 

[Moemoney42]

I think good old DD is what will shed some light on it Liquid.. I don't have a short answer for you and haven't had the time to research the details.. but with the way CPG in particular has traded in the last few months, to me, an accumulation phase is in play.. to what extent I can't comment.. but my years following O&G, and the potential for balance sheet repair and ROC in many

[highalpha1]

@Moemoney42: I tend to agree with your analysis. I think that we have been in sideways mode for the past few months. As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I think that this stock will move up much quicker from C$6 to $7 than it did from $5 to $6. Shorters are able to manipulate this stock given how it is has both ample liquidity and (as of late) low volumes).  The question then becomes,

[Bpultra]

why do you think its range bound Current Payout to Shareholders -3%CurrentPaying a dividend while loss making   Dividend Coverage: CPG is not paying a notable dividend for the Canadian market.   Future Payout to Shareholders n/a2024No data

[Bpultra]

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 9.9%.........   wasnt there suppose to be some sort of share buy back ?  

[highalpha1]

@LiquidOctupusV2: Good points! I will also add that Bloomberg just did an analysis of the top performing strocks year-to-date on the S&P/TSX energy indices. So where does CPG rank? 5th! Yes, that's right, based on year-to-date performance (up until June 25th), CPG has outperformed all energy stocks on the indices, except for 4. Here is the ranking based on performance: 1) ERF - 132% 2

[Bpultra]

Did they by chance do a list or have one of the biggest non-performing energy stocks lets say in the last 2-3 years... Cpg I am betting would be number one on that list .... so my point is when you are at the bottom there is only one way you can go... 88 cents was the buy ..  =============

[LiquidOctopusV2]

This kind of information sharing is why I still come to the board.  Thank you.