Veren Inc T.VRN

Prepare to Launch

[CashHungry]

On the down side oil seems to be hitting a resistance at around $80.  It should bounce around awhile between $80 and $85, but the bull market is still in progress and at some point there will be a catalyst (won't take much) to send oil on its way to $100.  I think before then oil stocks will begin to trek higher as psycologically the down side resistance level of $80 may be just as important as the breakout above $85. 

CPG is a cash generating monster at $80, generating over a billion dollars in FCF.  Considering the prospect that oil could realisticly trade between $85 to $90 next year (some forecasting higher), CPG should soon have a market cap yeild of +50% at today's stock price.  How could you not want to aboard this rocket ship?

[Bpultra]

================= Well short term I got a sell at the high of the day ... so far that is .. I see the shorts added back a bunch of shares ... maybe good for long term thinking... 

[CashHungry]

I hope it works out for you - however be careful.  Years ago I was in and out of major CAD fertilizer company (then called Agrium).  I thought I was a genius often making 1 - 2% in a couple of days as the stock bounced between $16 to $18 for several months.  However, the good times did not last and one day the stock broke above $18 and I waited for it to come down but it never did

[Bpultra]

Yes but also remember I loaded up on CPG at 88 cents .. so I have made my money ..  and you are 100% right ... my lesson was teck bought in the 4s sold at a double in the 8s and now look at it ... but until this stock has a change inside .. the shorts rule .. should be able to get  shares back in the 5.80s will see .. oil not holding.. algos are trading this ============

[CashHungry]

Congrats on buying at 88 cents.  My first purchase of CPG was around $40, so I have a lot of battle scars - fortunately for me however I am winning the war. If I like a sector, such as oil (which I am infatuated beyond reason), my strategy is always to be 100% invested.  I will trade in-and-out of a company, but never into cash - always countering a sale of one oil stock with a purchase

[Bpultra]

yes and something that people may not consider is that with oil dropping this could help the cpg hedge program with the swaps etc etc .. meaning they loose less .. and I see the shorts have given a bunch of shares back so they maybe moving on ...  ??? =======

[CashHungry]

In a fast rising oil market there are huge paper losses (as opposed to realized losses) for any company that has hedges stretching out many quarters.  However, once oil settles in, regardless of how high, the quarterly financial heding losses disappear.  The balance statement losses for the year are still there, but don't grow in a stable oil market.  A lot of investors get

[Bpultra]

and there you have it back in the 5.80's ....   =======

[CashHungry]

Well done, and if you forsaw when you sold that there was going to be a bullish inventory report that actually pushed oil lower, then you are a lot more clever than I am. I am actually pleasantly surprised to see CPG hover at its yesterday closing price considering the drop in oil price.  However, I won't be surprised if CPG closes well above 6 - if oil just regains half of today's

[Bpultra]

============= part yes... but not 100% ...  the oil traders may  push this a bit lower yet ... but on the positive side the shorts have put back 700,000 shares so that has me watching the upside.... and if I get a read we are going back up wll buy higher .. but got a very nice div already today 

[Bpultra]

============ there is a big block parked at 5.80 ..we are currenlty over sold right now ,,,, so don't know if we will get there but oil is still dropping so algo;s and shorty shorts could push it there ..  for the long blocks I hope 5.80 holds but not looking so good right now 

[Bpultra]

===== did you just see that .... they tried to break 5.80  and just as they were about to .. anom  #1 came and scooped a bunch but I bet they try again

[Bpultra]

======================== and they did it ...