Veren Inc T.VRN

Realistically how much dividends can CPG pay in 2023?

[JamesT]

Given that the debt is level is around $1 billion or under, the bad hedges are off and price of oil stays relatively the same, what would CPG maximum threshold for a monthly divided?

CPG paid $0.23 before and that was when CAD and USD was relatively the same.

[LiquidOctopusV2]

I'll speculate on this - but that's all it is.  I say (without a scrap of evidence) that the dividend will, at minimum, double for 2023, to a baseline of $0.135 or $0.14.  I wouldn't be surprised, however, if they announce a variable dividend, that will exist over and above the baseline. 

[Moemoney42]

I'd love to see them complete or nearly complete the NCIB by years end and then drop a special divi on the shorters and watch them scramble near years end.. would be poetic justice IMHO.. ;-)

[jleer42]

You get bonus points for honesty :)  I hope they avoid the variable dividend, variable is harder to plan (NPV to SP) for and I think prevents the SP from increaseing as much as applying the variability to NCIB and debt repayment. A base dividend as high as prudent which will increase through greater buybacks and debt repayment.

[GermanHerman]

My guess is that they will set the annualized divy at apx 5% of share price.  Assuming a $15 share price in 2023, that would be $0.75 per annum, or say $0.06 to $0.07 per month.  Lots of ifs.

[JamesT]

I rather they set it as a percentage of free cash flow. It is a good way to show that the share price is undervalued. If they do it by percentage of share price it will ensure the share price movement remain stagnet. 

[JohnnyDoe]

but there again as a percentage of fcf the dividend is variable and hard to plan for. I'd like to see a plan laid out to zero debt and a clear dividend plan that states the price at which the dividend is sustainable. Look at CJ. They said they're paying 5 cents a month and the dividend is sustainable at 55 wti. When their debt gets lower, the dividend will increase. They'll likely get

[LiquidOctopusV2]

I think the baseline dividend with a variable dividend on top of that would satisfy, at least, some of the investors with your perspective.  I also used to want the div to stay small, I preferred buybacks.  I don't worry about it now.  I'm confident in my position in this company.  I think they're conservative enough.  

[JamesT]

I think with the price of wti around $150 CAD, they can at least be paying out $0.15/month in dividend given debt is at a managable level. If that happens this stock should be at $25+