Veren Inc T.VRN

moemoney:management using $75 dollars for 5 year outlook

[drunk@noon]

killed us. SGY uses 83 dollars, and no one notices the diff if you use 75 or 83.
You use 75 and come up with  8% return of captial to shareholders over 5 year time frame, that's all people see. They don't see the use of 75. They don't like the 60% payout figure over such a time frame. They didn't have to put anything out. IF you do, then use 80 when wti is at 90. F the five year outlook, using a wti figure, 20$ lower cdn that what oil is trading at today. That's what they thought was smart. Oil is finally rebounding. How about no press release. Or use whatever realsitc price that gets us to a 20% free cashflow figure for next year. That's if you decide to do a press relase at all. Nutall is dumping, the xop dropping this week when oil price is flying, Oil is at 90 and management torpedo'd us.

[DrBill1]

Drunk@noon, thank you, you made me think.  Why?  Why, is management low-balling so much.  As they are dealing with the future, a little safety margin can be understood, but so much.  I went back over the last 2-3 years.  Guess what is missing: Hedging Strategy. In prior presentations (for a long time) management had a  Hedging Strategy chart (or paragraph). Not

[Moemoney42]

I'd rather them be conservative on forcasts than highside them.. the level of hedges is far less than the last number of years and at much higher prices.. it will all work out in my opinion in the long term.. and that's what I'm playing, the long game... don't care about short term price spikes actually.. I want a consistant repeating uptrend with small consolidations along the way

[Moemoney42]

I forgot to mention, half the oil & gas stocks I follow were red today.. so its not just CPG specific for today's down day.. just sayin.. 

[JohnnyDoe]

If you look at the current corp presentation, the details on the hedging strategy are on page 25.  Using 75 wti is no big deal. It's a conservative number and probably a safe average. The corp deck covers off additional cash flow using higher numbers. There's 1.4 B additional "excess"  cash flow over 5 years at 85 wti.  I follow baytex pretty closely. They're

[DrBill1]

Reading Further: Financial Post, May 12, 2023 CPG is "also increasing its use of commodity hedges to provide financial protection against the risk of further price declines".   and furthermore "Chief Financial Officer Ken Lamont said 30% of the company's oil and liquids production hedged" My Comment:  With hindsight these "protections" could not