Veren Inc T.VRN

Effect of seasonality

[Anschutz]

Came across this graphic today. It presents the effect of seasonality on the price of oil, based on 24 years of data.  What I think is interesting is the average month to month % change.  I think the average price is less meaningful in the current hyper inflationary environment.

If the down trend in the price of oil continues as the graphic suggests, undoubtedly we will see tax loss selling in CPG and others this year.  Something I wasn't expecting to see as just a few days ago.  It may be wise to sell now, book the loss, buy back in 30 days at lower cost, and ride oil prices as they start moving higher in February.  Of course with 2024 being an election year... who knows how this will play out.  Would be interesting to see a similar chart based on data of US election years only.

[Moemoney42]

Interesting chart.. I wonder how it matches to individual stocks to see if there are any correlations or outliers on individual stocks due to the activities in those periods. IE: will a purchase like CPG just did increase or decrease the swing in the corresponding periods??

[Anschutz]

Yes that would be interesting.  Lots of ways to slice and dice the data.  I was just on the EIA website and all the data going back to 1986 is there for the taking.  I may take a look later today at WTI price changes in relation to election years.