Post by
MyHoneyPot on May 01, 2024 7:59pm
Rampup Capacity - Highly discounted to CPG
It looks like if WCP could get a rerating quickly all they need to do is add about 20,000 boe of production.
At the end of the first quarter WCP was producing north of 175,000 boe a day, then the added another 4 well pad on at musreau (April) that would automatically add 5,000 boe/day almost immediately.
WCP my guess is currently north of 180,000 boe/day currently. The 3 additional duvernay wells will add 5000 boe/day in Q2. that takes them to 185,000 boe/day.
Filling up the Musreau Battery (8 additional wells) woudl add 10,000 boe, then all you need is about 5,000 more boe/day. 3 additional duvernay wells would do it, and your very close to 200,000 boe day.
CPG enterprise value should be the similar to CPG 7.6 + 4B debt = 11.6 Billion dollars.
WCP enterprise value is 6.3B + 1.5B debt or 7.8 billion.
So CPG is valued 3.8 billion higher than WCP. 3.8/6.3 = 60%
So adding 20,000 additional boe/keeping production flat would add $5 dollars roughly to Kelts share price. Totally doable.
WCP should spend its full capex budget in 2024, and get as close as it can to 200,000 boe/day.
My guess is the stock would appreciate 50% in value and you would still have half the debt of CPG.
IMHO
Comment by
Seppelt on May 02, 2024 7:18am
Honey, You forgot about declines. Rather fast declines in recently drilled wells. Better stick to the company's updated 2024 average production guidance of about 170k boed midpoint. And then you wrote: "add $5 dollars roughly to Kelts share price" Kelt?