Post by
Farmer12 on Nov 03, 2024 2:42pm
Oversupply
Wcp gets about 90% of its revenue from oil and liquids. All of the natural gas is basically being given away at a loss or at best break even price, IMHO. The AECO price is more or less between 20-60 cents, if I remember right. The Coastal Link pipeline will start draining oversupply, possibly by mid 2025. A lot? of companies will slow drilling at current prices, and along with colder weather, the market will correct. Russia, Saudi, and the Gulf States have been more disciplined in recent years and haven't overproduced as they have at various times in the past. I have more Wcp than I maybe should have, but not peeing the bed.
Comment by
AvInvestor on Nov 03, 2024 4:54pm
Aeco averaged $2.74 this year, so your assumptions are completely wrong. Recent softness in price is not surprising during the shoulder season. Sometimes aeco could spike to $8 during deep freeze periods.
Comment by
Farmer12 on Nov 03, 2024 7:29pm
We are more than 1 month into Q4 earnings. If current NG prices continue in a similar way, NG will not goose Q4 earnings. The % of total revenue will be pretty small: probably much less than 10%. On the other hand, oil is selling around $70 U.S., or around $95-100 Canadian. Yahooey!