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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum WestFire Energy Ltd T.WFE

TSX:WFE - Post Discussion

WestFire Energy Ltd > the big picture
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Post by aaaaaargh on Nov 17, 2011 6:44pm

the big picture

I briefly held wfe earlier this year at around $6 and got cold feet and sold at the same price.  I do believe that it has a good management team and alot of upside (which is why I bought it in the first place.)  Believe me, I am not trying to bash the stock but just give you that "other perspective" as to why I haven't jumped back in yet.

1- MACRO ECONOMICS.   It is not going to matter if wfe's oil starts coming out as gold if Europe continues to go downhill.   It also is pretty much not going to matter much what stock you hold.   If the bond yields continue to go up, recession hits, and/ or Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, or God forbid Italy defaults, than welcome to the nightmare.

2- Sentiment- As above, everything else is what matters right now.   As HUGE amounts of cash sit on the sidelines, you can be fairly assured that any cash actually buying anything, will be purchasing large cap stocks. 

3- Westfire.   As I said in the beginning, I do like the company itself and continue to monitor it just in case I can get a low ball offer in.  Like the management, like the fact that they will grow from cash flow starting next year, like the properties and I actually like the merger.   The weaker side is that they only have the last two quarters showing positive EPS (although with decent oil prices, that should now continue, and grow).  But as it sits RIGHT NOW, they have a huge earnings multiple (which again shows that we believe in their future growth and profits).  There last production update had some issues.   This happens, but it is still a negative.

I believe that WFE will definitely do well in the long run, (3-5 yrs), but to be honest, I still wait on the sidelines for all the whole markets to go to heck, when I anticipate I will be able to pick this up in the $3 range.   I hope I am wrong for all of your sakes but nobody is buying anything right now and although it has little to do with westfire itself, it is still a reality.

Good luck to all in whatever you hold.    Disclosure...I am 100% cash right now.

Comment by kylerollwagen on Nov 17, 2011 9:00pm
you say you would like to pick it up in 3's, well it was at 3.5 not long ago so why didnt you buy then, likely as you got scared just as you will when assuming it gets in 3's again and the world is ending (lol) and you will miss and then when she is at 8 oneyear later you will be wondering why didnt i buy.  you sound like a guy with your 100% cash that tries to pick the bottom and we ...more  
Comment by aaaaaargh on Nov 17, 2011 9:41pm
I was just trying to put another perspective into things Kyle, not trying to make disparaging remarks to another person.  And I kid you not when I say this...... I did have a long term stink bid for westfire at $3.50.   It got down to 3.51.  Ya, I kicked myself for not making it $3.52, but hindsight is 20/20. My point is that I am not expecting to "pick the bottom", I ...more  
Comment by dmacd on Nov 18, 2011 2:02pm
If oil was down around $50/bbl then I might be on the sidelines as well and WFE would be properly valued, but it is closer to $100/bbl. WFE has excellent growth potential as a result of the high cash flow, and growth for them is simpler than for most since they recently transformed into a solid development play with the biggest risk being the price of oil rather than  ...more  
Comment by dmacd on Nov 18, 2011 5:06pm
WFE is my top holding and every now and then I like to rationalize that investment. This will be one of my final posts for the next while, since I am now fully comfortable with my stance ...- WFE trades 4.7x 2012 P/DACF, with production to increase from 5,850 to 10,500 boepd (80%). - LEG trades 6.5x 2012 P/DACF, with production to increase from 12,700 to 16,500 boepd (30%). - CLT ...more  
Comment by barneyj44 on Nov 18, 2011 8:34pm
Dmacd you are very  knowledgeable about the oil business and I appreciate your take on Wfe. Usually what I get off these BB  I take with a grain of salt but this time I am making an exception as you know a hell of a lot more than I do about the oil business, keep posting as I appreciate your comments and going to stay in the game until the 9th inning.
Comment by dmacd on Nov 18, 2011 9:30pm
Thanks Barney, I actually don't think I know much at all about the oil business. However, I know a bit and I know value when I see it. Good luck.
Comment by kylerollwagen on Nov 19, 2011 11:00am
dude, you really think we are going to believe you had a bid for 3.5 and you missed by 1 cent.   you see you are the kind of person i believe  who does indeed want the bottom and then when it does happen, you will be so upset you missed it you still wont recognize it and still wont even buy 10% above the bottom and then when stocks  have doubled you will still wonder why didnt i buy ...more  
Comment by aaaaaargh on Nov 20, 2011 6:15pm
I am not positive that this is the official answer, but IQ research has a list of intermediates which are classified as "oil and gas producers which in a quarter, produce between 10,000 and 100,000 boe/d .   Based on this, westfire should be able to make IQ's list sometime in 2012.   Hope that helps!
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