West Fraser Timber Co Ltd T.WFG

How much earnings impact to the plus will this mean?

[Tothemoon2]

Exposure Change Adjusted EBITDA  Impact  (US$ millions) North American OSB (1),(2) $10 per Msf7/16” + $64 million

From a Norbord presentation in November

[Frost19]

Yeah I think the panel/Norbord side of the business will be the bigger gains although both sides are just killing it right now. 

[Dadsaid2]

The the number is actually insane. I'm not sure what report you are talking about but here l go .. and remember it is US$. For every $ 10 increase in 7/16 price Norbord/WFG OSB EBITDA increases by $64 million annually (assumption) so $16 million/ quarter. Assuming it was based on Q3 production. So....for sure production is up large from Q3 where NC average price was $578. So if we bump that 16

[Tothemoon2]

It's from the Norbord website.  Not sure which earnings release it came from but probaly the 4th Q.  I also heard or read somewhere that OSB is sold out thru August or September.

[Dadsaid2]

You originally said said you read a report in Nov. So it must have been Q3. Regardless l compared Q3 vs Q4 and Norbords EBITDA increased $62 million on 7/16 average price increase of $75. That makes $8.27 million on 7/16 $10 price increase so that reports $16 seems high. So if we use $10 cut my previous increase in half so OSB EBITDA estimate in Q1 is $650 - 700 million not $ billion.... over and