West Fraser Timber Co Ltd T.WFG

TD Notes

[retiredcf]

Trees Weekly

Lumber Trade File Optimism Offset by Broader Market Headwinds Lumber Prices Keep Sliding; OSB Holds Steady

• Forest product equities' share prices declined last week, in tandem with broader market trends. On average, wood-weighted names in our coverage universe declined 5.3%, led by WFG (down 6.9%), LPX (down 6.3%) and IFP (down 6.1%). Lumber equities rallied mid-week on reports that the U.S./Canada trade dispute would be discussed later this month, but trended lower by week-end. Pulp & paper-weighted equities declined 3.8%, on average. Last week's sector trends compared with declines of 4.5% for the S&P/TSX Composite and 4.4% for the S&P 500.

• Lumber markets continue to weaken. The Western SPF 2x4 (#2 & better) cash price ended last Thursday at US$357/Mfbm — a two-month low, down 4% w/ w, and 22% versus early-February highs. Adverse weather, ongoing affordability hurdles, and macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. Better conditions in the U.S. South supported prices for Southern Yellow Pine; the reference 2x4 (#2 & better) improved 1% w/w.

• OSB prices are stable. The benchmark North Central OSB price ended last week at US$250/Msf, flat for the past four weeks. Prices in other regions were little- changed. Winter weather dampened demand over the past week, but producers kept supply in check, with relative strength in the U.S. South.

   North American old corrugated containerboard (OCC) prices are stable. Fastmarkets RISI reported that New York OCC prices in March are US$30/ton, unchanged for five consecutive months at the lowest levels since February 2020. Weak corrugated box demand has depressed OCC prices since late-2022, but market reports indicate that pressure is building, partly from new containerboard capacity that is starting up now.