Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

The greatest "no brainer" investments of your life....

[metalhead666]

Copper and Lithium....you don't need to buy anything else other than a well chosen basket of names in these two spaces.  Nothing else.  I challenge anyone to find two materials, industries, asset classes etc that have the tailwinds copper and lithium have for the next decade. You don't have to over think any of this. It's in motion, it cannot be reversed, it cannot stop and it only gets better and better over time.  You buy a few copper names and a few lithium names and just sit back and watch your wealth grow. It's really this simple

I have 5 names and need no more. I'll sit on them for the next 5 years or so and then I'm done with everything...I'll buy some acreage in the South of France  grow tomatoes and make wine.

Western Copper and gold, Taseko, Nevada Copper, European Metals, Vulcan Energy Resources.....that's it...all I need. Nothing in Africa, Mexico, Latin America....5 names practically guaranteed now to make me rich. 

No tech, oil, retail, real estate, finance, consumer, dot coms or anything else...nothing has the tailwinds copper and lithium have

No gold, silver, maganese, cobalt, rare earths, coal, oil, iron or anything else....nothing happens without copper and lithium...nothing.

And a fat tail hedge just in case the bubble market tanks, the economy crashes, WW3 breaks out etc

READ....https://www.mining.com/lithium-outlook-bright-as-ever-fitch-report/

[Heywood_Silvers]

Well, in terms of best investment available right now, silver takes the crown hands down.  BTW, Casino holds over 100 million ounces of silver, which in and of itself would be a sizable standalone silver project. I did a presentation in grad school regarding investments and the topic was silver.  A few nuggets that stood out to me were that silver (above ground) is much rarer than gold,

[metalhead666]

I wouldn't disagree that silver ranks high but Mexico doesn't.  Silver is unfortunately linked to gold and in my simple thesis there's no room for gold. The most important element in the universe is energy.  As we know it, energy for the future is completely tied to copper and now lithium.

[Heywood_Silvers]

If you're a big believer in green energy (i.e. solar) you have to be a big proponent of silver due to the usage in solar panels. At the end of the day, you shouldn't be tied solely to exposure to only one commodity or asset in the commodities bucket.  I have exposure to gold/silver, copper, zinc, nickel, palladium/platinum. I would shy away from oil as it appears it will be waning

[metalhead666]

To each his own...all you really need to know about lithium is the same you need to know about copper...they are both critical to this future society and governments have laid out. They are the two indespensible elements. Silver is used less and less in solar and while I don't dispute its utility it isn't as critical as copper or lithium.  Same with palladium and platinum...there

[cb2task]

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[Sooner]

Hey - Discovery has market cap about $700M and has NPV of about the same. Seems like no where near the same value proposition as WRN with market cap about double WRN and NPV around 1/5 of WRN. Am I missing something? I've been asking for quite some time now for examples of any stock with better value proposition than WRN...and even with recent spike in our stock...I'm still laying out the

[Heywood_Silvers]

I agree that it will be tough to beat WRN  in a value challenge.  I went back and looked again at the 2018 NPV figures for Casino.  One thing I noted is that they are being way too conservative using an 8% discount rate, but fast forward 3 years to today and some of the input costs that determine NPV have increased also.  I would say use a 5% discount rate, but let's use 7%

[metalhead666]

If you're going to add in "blue sky" potential then you have to subtract "mean reversion" in the price of copper and gold, and other factors that add to costs or deduct from revenue in the future.  Can't just plug in 40 year mine life either even if that's what it might be.  A mining project is worth at the present time only a fraction of the NPV. That'

[jclarke042]

  Exactly right, and why the PEA/FS will use a "base case" of something like 1500 Gold and 3 Copper. In other words, show this project is economical even if prices collapse. Detractors see Casino as an "optionality play," meaning it is ONLY economical (and thus will only look attractive) at sustained prices of 2k Gold & 4.5+ Copper.  Please remember too all

[metalhead666]

Right!  And the PEA and Feasibility Study should show that very well. And there are intangibles like the outlook for copper going forward, how much the gold component means to an aquirer, the time value of money while they build it...so many angles and so many unique properties and variables. At the current $3 Canadian if an offer were to come tomorrow I doubt it would be for 100% premium ...

[jclarke042]

How we get 10+ is: add the 5-6 cents per 11b pounds of copper AND the 75 dollars per 21m ounces of gold. Add those two numbers, and that's the price tag IF (and it's an If) Rio "buys the copper" and NEM "buys the gold" at those average prices.

[jclarke042]

Obviously that's a theoretical price tag, pick any cents/dollars per you want. I picked 5-6 cents and 75 dollars just for illustrative purposes.

[metalhead666]

But that $75 number might not be in the ballpark ...it could be half of that. Same for the copper.  You have to factor in many many things unique to Casino not the least of which is where it is. It's a long way from nowhere. I'm not saying that it can't go for that but given history it seems unlikely....I also think a partnership between Rio and Newmont is unlikely and way too

[Sooner]

Metal - I think u are spot on albeit conservative in nature like me. I think most of the math shows somewhere around $5-$8 usd as most likely outcome $750M - $1200M. I keep coming back to the fact that Dale stated he expects Rio to make offer for entire company much sooner that lapse in the 18 months. That to me was very telling comment and not too much left to the imagination. I also agree that

[metalhead666]

Yep...agree with all of that.  Good stuff. Fair price, Nice and tidy....let's hope it's all cash too.  $6 US would be awesome

[GardenManman]

sooner, Before Rio takeout happen, if the share price climb to $6 USD when PEA out, would you clear your 200k position and out? No offence, just courious:-).

[metalhead666]

I'll chime in on that....Retail investors could drive the stock to $100 but Rio isn't going to buy it out for $101.  There's no accounting for what luancy can happen to any stock in the short run....look at Tesla, Game Stop, AMC and so many tech names that will never have a profit at all...but in a private sale the buyer isn't going to pay what some crazy retail traders might.

[Sooner]

Of course not. I don't expect that....I mean we had full FS out for 7 years and for the last year up until the Rio announcement we were trading for around $75-$150M even though NPV from FS showed something like $2-$4B. Seems like PEA could very well be same thing and not driving share price much unless blockbuster...which I don't expect. 

[metalhead666]

A note about "averages".....$90 "average" isn't always a good number....more than half of all projects went for under $40. At a feasibility stage it might be better to plug in something less than $90 for gold and 7.5 cents per pound for copper.  Being super conservative that still gives a range for a WRN takeover between $3 and $6  If this were sitting down in the

[Heywood_Silvers]

Metalhead, if Dale & company woud be satisfied with $5 USD in 2021, why didn't they sell the project at its 2011 peak of $4 USD?  Certainly $4 ten years ago is worth more than $5 today. You are selling yourself way, WAY too short.  I say not a snowball's chance the BoD would even offer up a buyout bid to shareholders that isn't well into the double digits.

[Heywood_Silvers]

I'll just add another point to why there is zero chance a sub $10 buyout offer would be presented to shareholders: If you look back at the last two weeks, the share price went from $1.6 USD to $2.80 USD with around 6 million shares trading on the NYSE.  What amount transferred from weak hands to strong hands, maybe half of that?  OK, so if a suitor were to go into the open market (i

[metalhead666]

If it's all so obvious why isn't it trading at $5 now? If it's obviously worth $10 why isn't it at $5 now?  Everything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. If Rio doesn't feel it's getting a great deal they can walk...won't hurt them but it would hurt us. What are we worth then?  Nothing. Moose pasture. Who holds the trump cards here? Who ultimately

[Heywood_Silvers]

Why isn't WRN trading today at what it will be worth tomorrow?  Well, it reminds me of the old adage that Wall Street can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I would say that the reason we see irrational prices in WRN is a combination of weak hands and many ignorant to the true value of WRN.  The same could be said for many juniors:  why is ITH trading at 10% of

[Sooner]

10 years ago $4 usd at 100M shares = $400M $5 usd at 150M shares = $750M. How many shares did Dale have 10 years ago at $4 compared to how many he would have today at $5? what was m&a market like in 2011 vs now - most likely frothy then compared to today...

[metalhead666]

That's a good point and another example of how complicated this is.  A lot of deals were done in 2011 at the top and many gold miners in particular blew up after over paying just as the gold market hit the skids.  I think we have a new floor now for both gold and copper and the next decade for copper looks exceptionally bright. But again..We want top dollar, Rio wants a bargain

[metalhead666]

Sure...I understand your point but the board doesn't decide what someone else is going to pay. They can put a price tag on it but if no one is willing to pay that price it's a stranded asset.  WRN cannot develop this on their own. They've added value all these years. They've proven a resource. They have a number in their heads that they would like to get but at the end of the