Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

Bidding War’s Begun

[EvenSteven27]

Don't sell your shares. This is going much higher than $6. The heat is on. RIO is under pressure. Offer a fair value offer by June 2022 or else second bidder comes in (Newmont). Either way, we win. Early buy out at a good price to stave off competition or later buy out at even better price. Imagine this: Rich Australian dude walks into the Casino. Whips out a wad of $26 billion and makes a bet. Realizes he has a full flush. Now, he's trying to figure out when to play it. As Kenny Rogers sang, "You gotta know when to hold out, know when to run. There'll be time enough for counting/ when the dealing's done"

[jclarke042]

All for higher than $6, but then we need the FS to improve throughput (and therefore NPV). Paul's most recent interview alluded to Rio contemplating a higher grade starter operation. That's a nice start. As it stands, the after-tax NPV is approximately: $1,864m / ~160m FD shares = $11.65/share $2,330m CAD / 160 = C$14.56/share Either show me a buyout for 100% of project NPV, or

[gratvalyou]

at present  Casino is valued at 1.40$ cnd or 224 million market cap. 1.75- .35=$1.40  (57mil cash in the bank) sad Grat

[Sooner]

Yes. we should be updating Corp presentation to show trading below 10% NPV.... more importantly, it always seems that acquisitions pricing is based upon prior 2-3 months weighted average share price. let me ask a stupid question, why do we need so much cash? Of course we were told prior to last raise (what was that like $20M?) we had enough to get thru permitting. so if instead of $57m cash we

[MetalMinded]

I respectfully disagree Sooner.  I believe most buyout offers are related to some discounted percetnage of NPV, Capital exenditures required to build and oeprate the mine, ROI of buyout and capital, and liftime revenue of the mine.    I fully expect Casino to garner around a $2B buyutt offer regardless of current share prices.  I expect share price to rise ahead of that buyout

[Heywood_Silvers]

True, WRN might not need the cash that they have on hand at the present moment.  However, was the company going to give RIO shares for free?  The cash is a byproduct of the strategic buy-in rather than a choice borne out of need. Also, juniors tend to prefer a cash rich position that allows them to weather storms.  The junior resource sector is very fickle and we all know the

[EvenSteven27]

I agree. It gives them fuel or burn time if necessary. Markets can always be fickle and unpredictable. On that note, I suggest everyone listen to the Crux interview, especially between 5:20 and 8:20 mark. Paul actually states BHP or Newmont could make a counter bid and there is nothing Rio can do to stop it. Then, he appendages with I assume we will carry on with Rio business as usual. But he does

[EvenSteven27]

[EvenSteven27]

That’s weird. It’s not posting the link. Maybe this will work better. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c7TugkCbkgY

[MetalMinded]

Then go listen to the latest interview.  The feasibility underway is for those avenues if they need to be explored.  The feasibility study is not a for or a requirement of RIO.  RIO is only waiting on MET data.  RIO twining is not based on the existing activity plan by WRN, only MET.  Decision will be sooner, not later.  This must have been what Dale was referring to.

[MetalMinded]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/16JZoiJzmd3sWiNUsTtIca?si=uRjrGR4ETzGOPUild5MSWg

[Sooner]

I would love to see a deal with Rio that is something like $3usd up front, then another $1 when permitted, then another $1 when construction completed, then another $1 when 1st M oz of gold mined, etc. making up the dollar values but something along those lines where it's both Rio and WRN sharing in risk /reward of Casino 

[MetalMinded]

I think you be pleasantly surprised with the total buyout.  You heard it here first...Metal saying $12/share buyout offer Q2 2022.

[Marine2]

MetalMinded Not to sound flipped, but I like your time line (Q2 2022) buyout offer $12/share,, is that US or CDN ?LOL After many years of placing WRN on the back burner something will happen in 2022,, $6 to $12/share I will be happy with. This is one were I'll wish I had gotten greedy and bought more !  Time will tell M2

[Sooner]

Metal - what will be the catalyst to take us from $1.4 to $8 prior to a 40% premium buyout? PEA didn't do it, starting road didn't do it, Rio investment didn't do it. What will it be? im pretty firm in my belief even if Rio wants to buyout and believes WRN worth $6 ...the market cap cannot be so far below that- so we will need market cap to get moving very soon to hit your timeline.

[gratvalyou]

Ahh maybe that's when we a share buyback? grat

[Sooner]

Didn't Paul just say it will take $20-$30M for permitting and $3M for FS. So that leaves $25M extra. What G&A? Can't be too much...so we are sitting on an extra $20M?   Several on here complain that day traders and shorts are keeping our market cap depressed. If that were really the case....then wouldn't announcing a $20M share buyback authorization (even if we don't

[EvenSteven27]

Granted, sooner...your predictions look probable. But always expect surprises. I’m holding onto the belief that WRN and Rio already have a tentative deal and it is good. I believe Paul was already talking with BHP and Newmont in anticipation of a bidding war and RIo offered a really good deal to stave off a bidding war. Don’t underestimate.

[MetalMinded]

$2.3B base case already discounted 8% for Rio ownership.  Multiply that by a further discount to 80%NPV results in $1.84B.  Divide that by ~150M shares.  Gives you $12.24/share.  I recognize that may be high end thinking but I can almost guarantee it ain't half that.  Rio want the entire mine.  They need MET results to confiem order.  They should have answer

[metalhead666]

NO ONE would ever pay 10% of NAV for this. You will get a gift if you ever see $2

[Pinegrove]

I'd prefer an outright sale. WRN has 9 employees and is an exploration and development company. They are nearing the end of their reason for existence. Find it, de-risk it, FS, hand it off to a major that has the cash and infrastructure to run with it. Western Silver is the model

[jclarke042]

Thanks for posting this guys. Sounds an awful lot like an outright sale sometime next year.

[EvenSteven27]

Thanks for sharing, Metal! Sounds like an all out sale next year. I find the current stock price depressing although Penasquito went from .90 to $18 in roughly a year so it ain’t over til it’s over. BTW, had a dream last night that we were all having a celebration party. See you there!