Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

Getting pummeled

[Diamondboy123]

Wow

[Pinegrove]

Copper $4.50, gold $1,850, WRN $1.82 - doesn't seem to add up

[jclarke042]

Did I miss any news this morning? No, I didn't? Ok, then everyone settle down. Nothing fundamentally has changed here. Turn off the computer and come back tomorrow if this is all too much to watch. Copper hovering 4.50, gold 1850, iron ore still on the rebound. All of this bodes well for us. New presentation is out today, we're still ticking the boxes here.  In the immortal words of

[cb2task]

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[GardenManman]

today volume is good beacuse CB is back:)

[cb2task]

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[GardenManman]

yeah, hope Rio make final decision in May.

[Sooner]

Clark   - or others  stupid question, slide 13 indicating the recent drill results with Rio indicating an improved grade....how does that factor into FS and/or increase in resource estimate? Seems like if we don't update resource estimate ....then that drill result is just for Rio's benefit and nobody else cares? If the Rio drill results were 10% of the total drilling that

[Sooner]

FYI - i also asked Sandy and Paul similar. Really a pretty straightforward question so hopefully i get an answer to share....unless i'm just a rookie and only one who is not aware of how these one off drill results used....which could very well be the case....at which point i would be happy if others with more experience on this board could enlighten me.  Hi Sandy, Paul,   A stupid

[IvanRo]

The improved or better drill results will be incorporated into the FS with updates to Resources and Reserves as appropriate and will then form the basis of the Revenue for the DCFs etc. On a separate note: Will be interesting to see how the allow for costs given the increase in energy costs, inflation etc. but the increase in resources / reserves should more than cover it.

[Sooner]

haha! Ivan - you're sounding a bit like methhead - Just kidding. Yes, if we are going to assume an increase in capex due to inflation....we had better well include an increase in metal prices due to inflation in the assumptions!!!! I really wonder how much the drill results with Rio will increase resource size, CuEq grade, NPV, etc? Are we tallking 5%, 10%, 20%, or ??? increase in these or ???

[IvanRo]

A bit unecessary there Sooner... Since the PEA was issued inflation has gone up and so have the costs of energy and associated costs of materials required, the point I am making is that it will be interesting how these are reflected in the FS i.e. how much extra Capex will be needed over the top of the PEA Capex! And as you well know, that FS metals prices are based on forecasts for the prices and

[Sooner]

 reply from Sandy implies the drill results will NOT be incorporated into updated FS or resource size estimate --- seems like the drill results were ONLY for Rio's benefit per her response. Underlines are from me from Sandy's response. Nothing confidential of course with this - I guess i should have expected this since probably would need alot more drilling to actually change the

[jclarke042]

Remember, Rio is mostly (only?) concerned with the core zone. Higher grade in the core zone shortens payback period, makes the capital cost easier to manage, get approved, whatever. Rio is NOT interested in making the deposit BIGGER. They're poking around the core zone so they can justify the capital cost, AND our price, IMO.

[Sooner]

yes - but i think you would agree....if we came out with some announcement that the Casino resource has increased in size by 10% and grade increased to 0.5 from 0.4....then that SHOULD provide some increase in our market cap and/or perhaps would also peak other potential bidders into the equation....

[jclarke042]

All depends on the throughput rate. If you're mining more ore at the same rate, you're just adding to phase II life, which Paul's said is worthless on a DCF basis. BUT. If you increase the rate from 120k tons per day, especially in the core zone/phase I of operations = more profit per year = more NPV.  

[jclarke042]

Same goes if you keep the 120k tons but at higher grade, as our core zone is proving to be. More profit = higher NPV

[Sooner]

i would hope tha tsophisticated people understand DCF in these examples....and that it's ridiculous to say 200,000 ounces of gold mined 30 years from now is worthless simply because of the discount factor! Why in the world these NPV calcs don't apply a more sophisticated assumption on metal price increases over time is beyond me......

[Heywood_Silvers]

With all due respect, Paul is not a finance professional, but I am.  The statement that DCF is worthless after 25 years is absolute hogwash!!  Now, the general rule of thumb is once you start getting well north of 40 - 50 years then you can for all intents and purposes ignore anything past that point as being more or less marginal. Paul, do you doubt me?!  Have Excel handy in your

[Sooner]

doesn't the cash flow In years 25-50 assume $1600 gold and $3.35 copper and that cash flow is discounted at an 8% rate! So $400M mined in year 1 cash flow is like $50M cash flow in year 25 and $8M cash flow in year 50 so if no assumptions are made for metal prices to increase over time....that's why the NPV is pretty much only based upon years 1-15 because after that the discount 8

[nmpappy78]

Yeah, Sooner!!  You may be "geting it"!!  Or, are you still hung up on the $5-6 share price?  I hope not ...

[cb2task]

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[Sooner]

pappy - no no no no...... You heard it 1st from Sooner....$6 usd! That's the most reasonable target. Most of you are going to complain it's too low, a few of you are going to complain it's too high.....so most likely i'm in the right range! If it's $6 usd....I retire at 55 in a few years. If it's $12 usd....I'm free to quite whenever i want! Here's Sooners gauge

[EvenSteven27]

Sooner - - you’ve it first from me. WRN is going for a price much further north  of  $6. How much further? I would be arrogant to say. Anybody who has been investing as long as I have would never be so insistent on one set price. We all need to show tact and flexibility. I, do, appreciate that you used the words “rookie” and “under 55”. Although I have had numerous 10 and 20 baggers over

[EvenSteven27]

Erratum: “Sooner - you’ve heard it first from me”

[Heywood_Silvers]

Funny you should mention BoD nominations, I think many of us have whimsically thought to ourselves if we really did hit paydirt and had enough spare $$ to acquire a sizable share of one of our favourite juniors, wouldn't we relish the chance to be on the Board of the company? On a side note, I did some gig work years ago for the company that handles the tablulations of the AGM votes for most

[Diamondboy123]

Be heard the "this will be your last chance " with western for so bloody long that it makes me want to vomit when I read it.  Sorry brother.