Western Copper and Gold Corp T.WRN

Rio finalizes deal w Turquoise Hill

[jclarke042]

https://www.mining.com/rio-tinto-and-turquoise-hill-get-serious-ink-biding-takeover-deal/

Two items of note: first, they're not increasing further and expect to close after a special meeting in Q4.

Second, this Bold Baatar, Rio's copper chief, is likely the one giving final recommendation on whether to move forward with Casino.

[MetalMinded]

I suspect now that these negotiations are closed, RIO can move onto negotiations with other projects where they are re involved with buyout potential, primarily WRN.  While every one wants to blame WRN management, the likely scenario is that RIO was delaying sitting downs at the table until Turquise Hill was through negotiations.  

[blueboron99]

MetalMinded, and I would expect RT is in no hurry to negotiate an offer on Casino yet.   IMO, their only priority would be to extend the Agreement for another year at the end of Nov, and then RT will continue to let the market prices for precious metals pullback much lower, than where prices are at presently. I would be surprised if they initiate any negotiatione prior to end of Nov. No rush

[MetalMinded]

I certainly cannot disagree with that assessment.  I think it is equally likely as an offer this year.  My position is they would  not likely sit down with WRN before the Turquise deal and negotiations were done and that explains the delay, not "mismanagement" as some have claimed.

[GardenManman]

metal, are you one of management from Rio? How can you know this? Or I can also guess, they got Mongolia copper mine, so they have backlog, so they are not hurry to get new junior now.

[MetalMinded]

Notice the word "suspect" it means it's a guess based on information I have to help me form and opinion, not a fact. You really are quite trite Garden.  

[Sooner]

clearly Garden and Money have some challenges with the English language....and perhaps that's the reason they are out in left field most of the time....

[GardenManman]

yes, sooner, maybe the problem is language issue, but most of time it is logical issue, you know, some unlogical guess is noise.

[MetalMinded]

But Garden, all you seem to bring to the discussion table is complaining that management has not forced RIO to execute like you want them to in the time you want them to. You don't really bring any analysis or logical thoughts, just complaints. 

[GardenManman]

actually, there is no value thought on this board. Some calculations is just elementary exam, no meaning because these numbers already has been defined by load owner --Dale, fair or not, Dale is decision maker, so sometimes I mock sooner 's $6, right number or not, it is not important, because " that number " already marked somewhere by Dale. So, when money bring some questions on

[MetalMinded]

Money, and you, ignore facts.  The First Nations were heavily involved in both the road and the taiking facility design.  The First Nations have bought off on these.  A negative person who ignores positive facts is...a short seller.  One of the strengths of WRN is their relations with First Nations.   Money is a short seller who brings nothing to this board besides

[GardenManman]

short seller? Could you please give me some basic information on the" short" of WRN? I am a newbie, money seems a block trader which trade and protect his principal safe.

[Sooner]

Short seller ---you know selling something you don't own in hopes that it goes down in value so you can cover your short with a profit..... is that what you need help understanding????

[GardenManman]

sooner, I means: Do you know what is exact number of short ratio on WRN? Higher or lower?

[Sooner]

I haven't checked short interest in WRN lately...when I have in the past ...it wasn't significant and not key driver in our market cap being where it's at. 

[MetalMinded]

Agreed, not significant.  But the shorts do exist and I believe some of them visit and comment on this board .

[GardenManman]

my mistake that "no value thought on this board". It is emotional expression I am appreciative to all inputs by everybody. Include you, metal.

[MetalMinded]

My advice is same as before Garden, no emotions in investing.  I am here because I see facts and directions leading me to believer a long position will eventually pay off.  There are those that are here and believe this will collapse and they short sell this stock.  Neither of those two groups are emotional.  They just have different perspectives on the potential and can

[Sooner]

Great ---mock it all you want...but I'm waiting for your math on valuing the asset....   mat least I have some reasonable calcs to place value on Casino - whether it's cost per lb of cueq...or price /NPV ...or price per metal value ..or whatever. im still anxiously awaiting your calc...maybe it's $0...and if so let me know how you arrive at that using other comps...  

[GardenManman]

sooner, you cacaluation is valuble and reasonable to yourself. For me. It is not important because decision maker Dale will define this number, i care or not, it will not change my final gain when takeover happen . I just care about "when it will happen".

[Sooner]

I think many on this board are giving way too much weight to Dale's voice at this point! 

[jclarke042]

  Blue, in your mind what is the X factor we've been missing that gets our market cap where it needs to be over the next 15 months? I agree Rio will extend - they have no reason to act now. Paul's upcoming webinars will start the hints of No Deal Now. What will do it for us? Higher metals prices, a major buy in, updated economics. None of it did anything for our market cap in any

[jclarke042]

Correction: I'm of the opinion the market believes Rio WILL balk at the size & scope of the build

[Sooner]

as near as i can tell - Casino is about 1/5 the size of Oyui ---  what is the current capex PLUS planned capex for Oyui? I would say it likely is going to be 5+ times what Casino will be....correct? If so...you are spot on that we can't seem to convince the market that our capex (while large) is not out of line

[jclarke042]

Wasn't the final tab about $10b? Split between various parties, but they're definitely not afraid to spend. Obviously Paul can't speak for Rio and their budgeting but this should be obvious.

[Sooner]

I think capex on Oyui isn't done yet either....and perhaps the interaction with govt "costs" not fully paid yet!