Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Shares Shorted Back Over 4M

[margaritaman]

Any suggestion of a short cover was way off. Back over 4 million shares shorted as of Oct 15. Q3 results should be out this week and we'll see if the shorts were right.

[kavern23]

Yeah on the Cardium players...both Yangarra and Inplay had the highest short increases from Sept 30 to Oct 15th time frame.  I suspect eventually BNE debenture holders will short BNE... Warrants just invite shorts.... But Obsidian Energy is only one that had a short drop for Cardium players during Sept 30 - Oct 15th. Obe dropped from by almost half in short count...350k covered.... I

[cfliesser]

9k BOE is what I am worried about. Their plan says they should be above 10k BOE by now. I don't expect them to be...

[margaritaman]

If your high end expectation is something just above 10k bpd you should get out now! Anything less than 11K bpd production exiting the quarter will justify the short position and crater the stock. I'm looking for someting north of 12K bpd exiting the quarter which would be in line with the plan to exit the year somewhere between 13 to 14k bpd. 

[personal]

I think you are being optimistic, I talked to IR and they are hoping for 12K exit rate for the end of the year.

[margaritaman]

Well I would have to ask your IR man why they increased the exit number from 13,300 bpd in the Q1 Corp Presenttion to 14,500 bpd in the Q2 Corp Presentation. Additionally they increased the capital budget from $60m to $85m in Q2 to keep a rig fully utilized for the remainder of the year. 

[cfliesser]

Honestly I hope so, but would rather be pessimistic and surpised than let down.