Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Kavern23

[pennydredful]

will  weight  in  once  he polishes  off   his case   of    Old  Style  Pilsner  ,  originally  an independent brewery  from   Saskatchewan   but   taken   over  by  Molsons  many  years   ago.

[kavern23]

Actually old Milwaukee, underated beer.  Still digesting everything. I love the financials and lots to like. But onto serious question, why was I off on my model numbers....probably for the same reason ygr was able to only spend 27m and getting so much work done. Ygr states 9 wells and 8 wells completed but they don't state net and gross wells.ygr likely had more their jv wells that

[kavern23]

I would assume production forecast is staying at 12k because most of the rest of wells in 2022 last 6 months are more 100 percent owned. Probably also why capex is left same, be average per well capex cost higher with no partner  total debt is 155.4 which is f8cking beautiful. Right on my expectations. 155-160 and I would be f*cking thrilled. Finally some nice stability and breathing room.

[cfliesser]

Yes my production modelling is also quite off, I was expected 11.5k in June. A full 1k off is a lot. It worries me that they made very little mention of why production is low when they did have excuses in the past...

[cfliesser]

This might answer something: Guidance levels remain unchanged – 21 wells will be brought onstream from the start of June Targeting 30 wells a year. So more than 2/3 of their wells planned to come online in H2 2022. This is either unrealistic or explains why they kept production guidance the same.

[Helloworld]

Looking through historical reports in 2018 they had a Q2 at under 8000 boe/d followed by a Q3 at over 10k boe/d so a large jump to 12.5-13k would not be out of the realm of possibility. Somewhat frustrating though the communication from the company.. a current day production number would have been nice to at least reassure that things are not flying off the rail. Will probably be 3 months before

[cfliesser]

Agreed... more information woudl be great. At least in 1 month Kav and I can see if m/m it goes up or down regardless if our models are off they shoudl at least predict directional change...

[Helloworld]

As an aside. CJ back over 9 while YGR under 3... have to hand it to CJ management though with a stellar quarter and insider buying and buybacks on top of dividend...

[fullyautomatic]

Here is what I CANNOT stand.. Youv'e got JOY flying higher after they bought a heap of garbage with huge ARO tied to it. Adding debt while doing so. YGR IS doing all the right things here, but no one cares. Partly it is mgmts fault for not promoting whatsoever. Partly it is investor ignorance. Starting to wonder if the "herd" will ever clue in here..  OR - I'm completely

[Helloworld]

Production is a problem. 10.25k average over H1 when the guidance was 12k average over the year to me means they are behind. The problem with YGR is decline and the high capex to sustain operations. If they cannot get production up to 14 to 15k then they need really high wti and aeco to cover capital. With the insanely high WTI and aeco for Q2 to only FCF 23 million shows with only 10k production

[Helloworld]

My opinion is they are fairly valued right now because rightly so people dont believe them that they can meet targets.. however if they do hit targets and the projected FCF they show in their investor presentation becomes reality then they will significantly outperform especially as they deleverage. I am a glutton for punishment so will probably continue to hold unless they go on another run.. the

[kavern23]

The problem "Was' ygr hit a weak batch of wells in first half of 2021 and the effects of weak wells for shale companies like ygr on their corporate production profile really hits about 12 months later ie q1 2022 and 2022 q2. Going to continue to get better as the weak batch rolls over through time. As long as ygr hits some good wells going forward it can easily grow fast as they don

[kavern23]

Ygr should end q3 with total debt of 132-137m...how can shorts feel comfortable?

[kavern23]

I had 11.1-11.2 (+-300) so 10.8-10.9 boe being threshold...ygr came in at 10.55 so I was 300-400 boe. Partly because I was lazy on weighted average between months and jv factor happened to be out likely on a few high producers but I likely was closer cliff cause I am adjustment factor jv harder then you are. I am actually not tweaking anything as if those two wells decline some...should be fairly