Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

August Production

[cfliesser]

Numbers up. Wow. Very good growth.

My model is showing:

3.9k boe oil
2.2k boe NGL
6.6k boe nat gas
Total: 12.7k boe

All growth is in oil nat gas and NGL is estimated to be steady m/m.
But oil grows by 0.6k boe m/m. That is an 18% m/m oil growth...

[Helloworld]

Funny. So much optimism around production growth and such good information being shared convinced me to hold. Else I probably would of sold after Q2 results during the next pop after the disappointing growth from Q1 to Q2. But here we are down another 30% over the last month despite great operational results and back to levels close to a year ago despite wti over 100 cad, production up 30%, and

[cfliesser]

Not down due to anything YGR did. Down because of the market overall. And the pessimism around everything

[Westboro1]

Like the Saudi's have said....prices dont reflect reality

[kavern23]

I havent been in a rush to buy YGR as I am backing off until at minium I see companies like OBE, Cj ec trade cheaper.  I think another leg down for some of these companies and even though YGR is doing great....YGR will go down if CJ has a 60 cent drop and others. As the war is doing going, if I buy YGR I have to be prepared to hold it until next April. I am lol normally an opinionated

[Hendrick3]

Waiting for OBE and CJ to become bell weathers for when to buy YGR may be deceptive and cause you to miss out on a great buying opportunity in YGR. OBE has Loukas insider buying on dips regularly and CJ has a 10%+ dividend at these prices. No insider buying on YGR (which is a mystery to me) and no dividend means that in these short term crashes, there is no support. YGR has a larger short position

[cfliesser]

I personally don't try to time the market at all. I feel like I am smart enough to do so, but by thinking that I probably am not....

[kavern23]

My point was more around CJ, OBE, etc could still have 10-40% haircuts coming and that enviro would hurt YGR. A bear market isnt good for YGR even if company can handle it better. Look at slide 28 on OBE's presentation, OBE uses a price deck of 105 WTI and 6.50 AECO and the paybacks on Peave River wells are 1 year.  At current prices of 79 WTI...is the Peace River part even economic to

[cfliesser]

Kavern, do you know why oil prod is up so much in Aug? The only wells I see on petroninja were producing in July and though theyare still great in Aug they drop a bit as expected. Aret here new wells producing in Aug? I don't see any in Ferrier.

[kavern23]

The 3 ferrier wells tied in at end of July....those are well ids...added up that is 1313 in oil per day combined from the 3 wells: 102021204009W500 593 100011204009W500 488 100021204009W500 232 They should hold well and do 1100 ish for Sept as well. They are on petroninja but only show for July as you stated.

[kavern23]

One of the reasons why YGR should be able to grow and has been in 2022 is the majority oft YGR oil production is non flush wells...they dont change much month to month. YGR is a stable (depending on dewax and maintenance they do) at 2000-2400 barrels per day on oil side per month. Would be ideal if the 4 new ones in Ferrier for Sept can do 600-800 combined on oil.  More gassy but I think

[cfliesser]

Yes they will not be as proific on oil based on nearby wells...

[cfliesser]

I see some Aug production. Makes sense I guess if they were only tied in end of July that they only hit Aug production. I see the % days active now. Only active for last 10 days of July. 100021204009W500 aug 236.1 july 359.4 102021204009W500 aug 593.0 july 724.4 I do not see this one however, where is this? 100011204009W500 My only thoguht is that new wells are not close

[kavern23]

I was impressed and optimistic as well after seeing Aug in my model. I have oil side better as well and any time YGR does a Quarter over 3000 barrels it should CF over 40m in its sleep easily as low base point. I am in the ballpark of you on NGL and Ng but I have oil being lower.  I think they only own 85% of those nice new oil wells and after adjusting JV out I got 3200 on oil. Looking