Post by
Helloworld on Nov 06, 2022 9:12am
Q4 Lookahead
Based on annual average production range given of 11000 to 11500 bpd it equates to a Q4 range of 11650 to 13650 bpd. Hopefully since management gave this estimate with 2 months to go they are trending on the mid to upper end of the range instead of lower. Also with revision to capex of 110 million it means a Q4 capex of about 26 million. YE debt range means a FFO estimate of 38 to 48 million assuming 85 wti and 3.5 aeco and FCF of 12 to 22 million. WTI has trended a bit above 85 and aeco a bit below for the quarter to date. Aeco should improve from here hopefully for remainder of Q4. Also note no meaningful hedges as of November.
Comment by
cfliesser on Nov 06, 2022 9:30am
For sure, their new guidance is easily achievable. I will recalibrate my model when I get home from vacation, but I expect the last 2 months were above 12k to get the avg 11.75k last Q. So I think around 12.5k in Q4 is reasonable.