Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

2023

[fullyautomatic]

Does anyone have a sense for 2023 guidance?

Here is my stab at it:

CAPEX for 25net wells $90M

Production average 14,000-15,000 boe/d-- Ever the optimist..:)

FFO full year $156M

Debt EOY 2023 $50-75M

NCIB begining the start of H2 2023

What do you all think?

[Flush11]

hi Fully Any reason why you used 25 wells for next year? Management was pretty specific in the past that they would maintain one well drilling all the time. Was there something said about that changing? If not I see no reason to take their foot off the pedal - just leave it on cruise control. 1 rig, all the time. If they maintain the 31-34 wells per year depending on the amount of JV wells

[fullyautomatic]

Flushman: Thanks for the input. My 25 well forecast is running under the assumption that drilling results improve to the point where they can look ahead to the NCIB while meeting a production target. I think they can. Lessons need to learned from the market. It doesn't want a big CAPEX line. See CR's guidance- yikes  Basically I wrote this guidance to compare my thinking to Mgmt

[TheRexmember]

I don't think they have a choice. They drill or they decline. There is no point in owning a junior for dividends and buy backs. It hasn't moved any other junior stock significantly.  if that is the goal there are far better options that are also a lot bigger.  Cost of capital is pretty ugly to be a dividend payer at these production  levels.  Sgy, bne, ath - all

[Helloworld]

Someone is optimistic for 2023... 1.2 million plus shares in one swoop. 

[Westboro1]

Its that time of the year...sell losers and reallocate to opportunity.  YGR will do mych better in 2023 and so will CEI!

[Westboro1]

It also looks like an agreed upon trade by two institutions.

[TheRexmember]

Very impresses with how it held up after Q3. might even be lucky that the stock was not a lot higher in the summer so we avoid huge tax loss pressure.  find it curious that the company is basing just below 3.00 - the lower limit for buying on margin for a lot of institutions.  Some shorts are unwinding based on the reported numbers. I wonder if they are selling into strength and

[kavern23]

I am leaning towards a guess of 100-110 million capex. Probaly alot of savings in keeping a rig busy on full time basis versus shutting it down. The wells in that Pheonix field they look to be developing next will be huge well numbers per each pad. Production could get choppy as it will be 5-6 wells fracked and tied in at a time but economics and profit should drive all decisions. I do think that