Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

REX-ATH

[kavern23]

Rex, ATH's share price currentky of 2.82 kinda shows retail investors must expect 80 buck oil again as ATH finanical numbers are not good at 65 dollar oil. Their thermal side only had a 20 dollar netback in Q4. Their high volume but also high operating cost...great mix at 80 but not good mix at 65 oil.
And they have let their high netback light oil decline alot year over year.

Way less downside in YGR at 1.75 than ATH at 2.80. YGR is already priced in for low oil prices but ATH has not. A q of 65 or lower WTI would really hammer ATH cashflow and share price.

And if some event causes oil to be 80 again...YGR for sure goes to 2.50 plus. 

ATH has to prove to market is is viable at low oil prices as prior to 2022 it was really struggling in a lower oil price enviro.

[kavern23]

Like ATH below uses 85 dollar WTI if you look at what note 1 is..on March 1 they still use that type of WTI price: Excess Cash Flow Strategy: In 2023, Athabasca plans to allocate a minimum of 75% of Excess Cash Flow (Adjusted Funds Flow less Sustaining Capital) to shareholders. The Company anticipates generating ~$415 million of Adjusted Funds Flow1 and ~$270 million of Free Cash Flow1&

[Hendrick3]

Ath have such a heavy share count that on a per share basis they are quite unimpressive. Just my opinion apparently but due diligence should include per share representations. Also their NAV of PDP reserves report is in the $2.50 range while Ygr over $4. 

[TheRexmember]

Mostly agree. I think ATH has lowered costs a little more than that and the Sagd asset they bought from Statoil is top notch. The other one is not. And it has net zero debt.  people are underestimating the ability of sagd operators to grow production without big facility expansions. Lots of innovation there over the past few years to get more barrels out of less steam.. Now they have some