Post by
kavern23 on Apr 13, 2023 11:43pm
Market
From economic data I am reading, I am staying out of the market right now.
Not advising anyone else too, but just stating a point you wont find in mainstream media.
Here is why.
After reading economic data on the North American or world auto industry or commericial real estate sector, seems almost impossible to avoid a crisis in either sector within next 9 months.
I would rather buy stock after this event happens.
USA should sell 17 to 17.5 m light vechile sales and 2020 was 14.5m, 2021 15m, 2022 13.75m.
2023 is forecasted at 14.25m and Q1 2023 was 3.5m. Automakers were surviving on this lower sales in the last 3 years because jacked prices up to make more per vechile. But that is ending as March was first month in 20 months, new vechiles sold unfer MSRP and manufacture rebates are slowly starting again. Going to be a crisis here wit a few companies going broke. A lack of vechike production will build alot of commodties.
OPEC did a really short sighted and foolish thing by cutting production with the current economic fundamentals. Oil Petrochemicals will have lower demand with ng so cheap and lng rates falling. Going to be substution abit soon. Asia LNG is 12.50 but at 10 it would likley make some oil pretrochemical not that good.
OPEC should be letting price stop new production growth...not artifically lifting oil with NGLS and NG oversuuplied right now.
Permanian basin new wells are not just increasing oil, produce alot of NGL's. This meddling is going to overproduce eveything as those wells also produce associated natural gas.
I havent seem fundamentals for NG this bad since I have followed it. Next Nov before NG prices will be good again. World LNG prices will crash soon enough. USA is massively oversupplied even with full LNG going. Its really bad unfort.