Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Every Day I Look Smarter

[Helloworld]

With YGR now half of ATH every passing day I look smarter for swapping names.

[Flush11]

For sure. the lack of hedges and the subsequent gas price plunge really set them back. The share issue earlier this year also means they need to grow production 1000 boe/day to break even on a per share basis. Bonehead moves. YGR lost at least a year compared to competitors on the balance sheet issue alone. Now they need about 5 quarters to get credibility back on their drilling reputation. So

[cfliesser]

Good move, but might want to swap out. I think ATH is overvalued now.  $40M in FCF a Q isn't that great with a market cap of $2.2B... Not bad at all, but I think its much closer to being fully valued vs. peers now.

[Helloworld]

Unfortunately my post is in sarcasm.  I sold ATH and bought and held YGR (obviously not a smart move) about a year and a half ago.  Very costly mistake. YGR had been firmly ahead of ATH throughout all last year but this year seeing ATH rise 60% and YGR fall 35% is a nice kick.. every day the gap widens I keep thinking it has to close but here we are..

[Flush11]

ah. too bad. Being overweight the wrong stock really kneecaps returns - always good to own some leaders. ATH is probably still a decent buy. It is in a very different spot after using the past 18 months to fix the balance sheet. I traded it a couple of times. I don't think we can look at Q2 cash flow for anyone except maybe PNE and say that is what next quarter probably looks like. Cashflow

[kavern23]

ATH has 4m Free cashflow for the 6 months YTD. Happy for ATH shareholders to have made money here but reality hasnt changed. ATH needs really strong oil prices.  OPEC withheld heavy barrels in Q2 and boosted WCS differentials. Great break for them.

[cfliesser]

Q1 was rough but I think 40M FCF is doable for them. But 40M / 2.2B.... That's not great. They are > 10x YGR market cap... That would be like 4M FCF for YGR a quarter, come on doing much better than that.... 

[Flush11]

probably the low point for quarterly cash flow this year for both companies in Q2. the 160 million dollar asset sale, massive land position in the Duvernay, buybacks all give ATH more momentum. Lots of things going on to grow production per share. They are finally running Leismer a little harder. That was a great project that they stole from Statoil - far better than Hangingstone. YGR still has

[kavern23]

160m asset sale is a great price for ATH but I wouldnt say that vaulation means much. And let's look why they got a good vaulation..... Well number 1, that asset they sold doesnt have a pile of lease sites. All large pads with 10-14 wells a pad and not 30 years old. Back in 2017, some of those pads must have cost 70m plus after 10 wells. We need to see what ATH had them on the books at on

[kavern23]

Thats why it is a big boy game in oil patch. Used to be a company called Delphi energy near ATH sold stuff. They ran into financial trouble as if you invest 35m on a small pad of say 4-6 wells and prices sink..your f*cked...unless you have company size. hard for new companies to get into montny for that reason...really need 100m plus of capital after you have land...maybe more.

[TheRexmember]

Yeah Delphi took on too much for their financial strength. A few thousand barrels of Viking production would have gone a long way to offset the gas price collapses. Headwater had a great quarter. did a great job acquiring land cheaply too. Gotta say TVE paid top dollar compared to how headwater did - though I think they will have their day too. 

[kavern23]

I like Surge Q2. Really turning company around getting out of drilling in Alberta where their plays cost lots of money.  Competition in Sask is less and cheap wells, and tech is helping. Wells are shallow in Sask. Havent look in deep on financials though.

[Rational43]

If you like SGY than take a look at SOIL, which is much cheaper.  

[pennydredful]

not if you factor  in  their   abandonment liabilities 

[pennydredful]

Paul Coborne ---love him or hate him   he  does  more than  any  O.&G.  CEO   I  know  to promote  the company  and  keep  the street  updated   with   current developments. 

[TheRexmember]

Well if you never heard how great he is, just watch his Denver presentation. He tells you himself about 10 times.