Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

What to make

[kavern23]

What do you guys make of yesterdays oil weekly inventory report? Eia raises usa production from 12.2 to 12.6m barrels a day. I mean everyone knows it is at least that high. 

I think people are really wrong that usa goverment wants low oil prices. USA goverment has more to gain to have 70-90 oil price band than 50-70 oil price band.
With oil prices closer to that 90 band boom eia release that.

pieces are falling into place for a real whipping of prices downward.

[kavern23]

Or Europe natural gas prices up 35 percent in one day yesteday and lol analysts are having trouble on reason why. Potential strike is reason lol. hate to say but market deserves what is coming. Europe gov wants high ng prices to make renewables look favourable but it is crushing long term fundamentals.

[cfliesser]

Exports fell 2.5M w/w and higher production of 0.4M. But only build of 5M....  Of course export swings caused massive draw last week vs. Build this. But avg them out and you get still lors of draws... I see exports picking back up next week and a decent draw. 

[kavern23]

Cliff my point is usa didn't grow 400k in one week...it has been that high since early 2023. why wait until oil prices are above 80 to release that info? saudi has lost the three top oil consumers india, USA and China?

[cfliesser]

yea for sure, based on monthly report... https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/#oil-tab But clearly weekly reports use different math.  Not uncommon that different reporting has different formulas. Its all relative, last week had higher production than before based on their way of calculation. But still only build of 5M.... With low exports... More draws coming, just look at 4 week

[TheRexmember]

Lol, I think the data is really messing with coming up with an easy answer .  API is industry data, so a bit narrow. EIA has had bad data for a few years and has more political commentary than ever.  EIA said that the large data revisions they kept making were because NGLs stripped out of shale gas were miscalculated between production, inventory and exports. That makes sense as

[cfliesser]

TMX line fill in September starts in apprently Gaslink will be done in the coming months. I really wonder how gaslink will affect aeco

[Flush11]

  I saw a note somewhere that TMX line fill was just over 5 million barrels. just being a parrot there. For those guys long YGR I really feel that we are going to have a natural gas surprise to the upside at some point. The gas link line fill is one opportunity but there is also the TC expansion into NW U.S., a couple of smaller LNG facilities, potentially one more greenfield large facility

[kavern23]

Lots is going to depend if producers will ramp production on both Tmx and Canada lng plant go online. probably better for ng than oil as Canada can compete on cost of producing ng better than oil. oil hinges more on if opec ever decides to compete for market share again and nobody not even Eric knows what opec plans are for future.