Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Forecast

[kavern23]

So the ng forecaster for week ended Nov 3 is storage injection of 43 BCF. This can not go above 50 or it is a not good situation. As it is, 43 isnt the greatest if that happens. Right now USa forecasted to top out at abit over 3800 BCf in November and Europe hit 3808 Bcf yesterday.

Good news is Europe doesnt have 3847 BCF as a max storage, increased to 3914 BCF.

Europes daily was healthy on Oct 11, 7.4 BCF for the day. Europe is clearly going to take this above 3900.

Still a coin flip on how this turns out.

Eventually get to a point in which a cold Jan - Feb is vital, abnormal one. or prices just remain depressed.

This is most interesting fall I have ever seen in the NG markets. Just alot of high production supply, high renewables in Europe...and alot of pumpers.

Even though I am not invested right now and living stress free, I will leave with this statement which I used to tell other friend investors...."you do the pumpin, while I do the dumpin".  So many people uber bullish and pumpin for no reason.

[TheRexmember]

Lots of details in the gas market. Europe has a similar amount of gas in storage but North American production is a multiple of Euro production. So Euro storage can plummet much faster.  Last year there was massive curtailment of industrial usage. And Russian imports were significant much longer than expected.  Every time there is a little hiccup in gas supply, TTF prices surge

[kavern23]

Rex...first it was Russia rattling the sabre with energy and now it is middle east? Why do you think timing wise this is the case? Russia and middle east can see China, USA and Europe are investing billions, trillions combined...to lower future ng and oil useage....Russia and Middle East wont be as relevant in the future. Why do you think Saudi wants a new defense deal with USA? Saudi wont be as

[kavern23]

Then you get this, "Both the GFS & ECMWF models trended much warmer overnight, especially for the closely-watched day 10-14 period. 14-day Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) for Oct 13-26 are close to 5-yr lows" So does it make since to have a war premium on Natural gas in Europe and Asia...hammering prices up 30%...when this is a similar fall season to last year. IE WARM as f

[fullyautomatic]

Good Mornng Kav- olde buddy! A few things I will point out with your latest post. You do not mention grid capacity when speaking about EV adoption- this is the pinch point, if I had to guess grid max is at less than 25% overall EV adoption. Probably even less in Canada- the required expansion to the grid is extremly expensive and as we all know in Canada won't be near enough private industry

[kavern23]

Fully, good to see you around. I used to believe the grid cant handle Ev's stuff back in 2019 and I totally think this is oil industry funded bs. Such big money involved and lots of misinfromation floating around. China has cities with 25-30m people and 40%-50% Evs on the roads and those grids are handling it. Urban and not rural china that is hard into Ev's. The biggest issue on Ev'

[fullyautomatic]

Yeah I suppose it could be mis-info in that regard. We shall find out. Still need the LNG to fill industrial use gaps on electricity production. Urainum stocks are fun to trade but NG is the simple answer as a replacement for coal. Good Luck out there

[kavern23]

fully, the market needs stability right now and inflation tamed...and interest rates to start going down. USA long term mortgage rates are 7.57%...such groupthink from analysts to think this can just continue and consumer can be pounded month after month. Wall street should be embarassed if a serious crsis arises. Demand stinks in USA...refinery useage is at 15.2m barrels a day...embarassing for

[TheRexmember]

You do like to chomp hard on the occasional red herring Kav. I think the EV issue is completely irrelevant for the next 7-10 years.  no doubt electric vehicles will have an impact some day on the 25-28% of oil demand coming from gasoline. But not today.  Something has to generate the electricity going into the battery. Renewables have cost trillions so far and barely moved the needle

[kavern23]

Rex...everyone likes to use 5 year averags as they include 2020 and 2021 low demand covid numbers. Terrible comparision points. Even china was stll locked down in fall of 2022 yet. Ev are not a red herring, Ev's are going to be biggest change to standard of living since internet was rolled out. Time lag...2022 ev s dont really hit demand until 2023...just as 2023 doesnt effect things until

[Spos01]

I completely agree with you on EV/Infrastructure topic. I live in Quebec and constantly hear our government beat their chest about how quebecers rely 100% on Hyrdo Quebec, that they can supply all our needs. Yet we get a couple of rainy days in January and 50% of the electrical infrastructure goes down for days. So call me skeptical that in addition to trying to meet our daily needs, that Hydro

[kavern23]

Have you ran the math as I used to believe the media stories. Example...how much power do you think a central AC unit uses in a house? 8 hours of a central AC unit uses about half a Tesla model 3 battery charge and lots of cars have smaller batteries than this. About 30 KWH hours per day for AC central home unit and many houses have them ripping. Every home owner can easily handle charging an