Post by
margaritaman on Oct 20, 2023 1:42pm
Acumen Selling?
Well what do they know? Probably a F##K of a lot more than me lol. Very measureed but selling non the less. I guess the recent YGR presentations at at the Peter's and Schecter conferences didn't win over any the big boys. Oh well NBF still give the a $4.00 PT which is a 130% upside (Can you say deep value). Have fun out there boys and girls.
Comment by
kavern23 on Oct 20, 2023 3:44pm
Hard to expect YGR to be rocking over 2 dollar share price with AECO NG price for Jan on hedging curve is under 3 dollars now, looks like 2.90 ish. Very bad. Hopefully this turns around but short outlook isnt great unless some of the new wells start producing lots of oil
Comment by
margaritaman on Oct 20, 2023 4:00pm
I'll take that bad NG with WTI at current levels. Even at only 25% of production oil will allow them generate good FCF.
Comment by
kavern23 on Oct 20, 2023 4:36pm
Not with drilling rig going..... TIme will tell but I betcha IPO, BNE and YGR dissapoint in Q3 on FCF expectations....cause they all drilled hard in Q3. Even IPO and BNE more oil wieghted companies, they FCF much better during spring breakup or whenever they stop drilling. I am watcing closely if YGR will even CF equal to capex for Q3.
Comment by
margaritaman on Oct 20, 2023 4:49pm
Agreed. Will be high on CAP EX given the number of wells drilled in the quarter. With $3.2M per 2 mile well and $2M per 1 mile I am looking at capex of $28M - $30M for the quarter. If production comes in 12400 or better I expect some free cash flow. Anything north of $2M FCF is a positive in my books.
Comment by
cfliesser on Oct 20, 2023 4:51pm
I think 12.4 is reasonable, but unlikely any higher.
Comment by
margaritaman on Oct 20, 2023 4:59pm
So it comes down to CAP EX. $28M I think we see $2M FCF.
Comment by
cfliesser on Oct 20, 2023 5:17pm
FCF doesn't equal debt repayment though. Still have tax pools and depreciation. I think 10M in debt repayment possible.
Comment by
kavern23 on Oct 20, 2023 5:36pm
Not to be a neg ahole but if YGR cashflowed 22.4 in Q2...how are they going to cf 30? Oil prices wont lift CF by 7.5m.
Comment by
cfliesser on Oct 20, 2023 7:43pm
Yea you are correct. Prob closer to 25M cash flow.
Comment by
kavern23 on Oct 20, 2023 5:39pm
YGR Q3 spend is really going to be seen in Q4 production numbers...wells take longer from capital spend to revenue as they frac in batches. Hoping Sept numbers show some positive prod trend for October. Lots of production to come online as YGR executive verbally said. Focus seems to be on hitting 14000 BOE for year end.
Comment by
kavern23 on Oct 20, 2023 5:34pm
Agreed, hopefully sept is out tonight