Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Natty

[kavern23]

Enjoying a morning coffee and looking at weekly natty numbers. Nymex NG down 8 straight days.

Real time USA natty power demand is really poor right now, I think the USA auto strike has a bit do with it, industrial production is scaling back in usa with that strike, lot of suppliers that rely on GM, Ford and Stellantis.

Yesterday was a 12 bcf build versus 8 bcf daily five year average according to best modelers forecaster that I follow, that would be celuisnergy.com..best ng supply and demand forecaster there is, i have followed him for 20 years and can vouch for it accuracy as he uses real data for alot of it from gov websites.

More things that use diesel should be switching to natty. Trican seems to be switching one frac unit a year from diesel powered to natty powered. Must be a brillant financial payback on that.

Having diesel expensive right now is exactly what these greenie governments want.
Diesel is way higher emissions compared to other fuels like natty.

Even countries like Nigeria are buying compressed natural gas run buses as they cant afford to import diesel on world markets.

Next 30 days the price of natural gas could be most interesting I have ever seen. I expect even to see 5% plus daily price voliltiy.

[TheRexmember]

Hopefully we get a catalyst of some kind soon. Ideally a nasty cold snap centered on Chicago. Not Alberta.  some incremental LNG is coming in the next 6 months but most of the impact is 12 months or more out.  there are a few incremental expansions coming such as into the pacific northwest, a small LNG project in Squamish, oil sands  etc. but nothing else is moving the needle

[kavern23]

Europe just went over what 2022 max storage capacity of 3847 bcf. Europe is at 3850 BCF but storage is higher this fall at 3914 capacity. Injections this weekend will tell alot. Getting so full everywhere. Today was not bullish USA NG demand day, going to be 13-14 BCF injection even with LNG throtteled at 14 plus, The wildfires and then abnormally hot summer with AC demand just delayed this

[TheRexmember]

One cold snap is all it takes to throw a spanner in the works.  Deliverability is usually an issue too. How quick can it come out of storage and where does it go?  For us any exposure to international prices is a huge benefit. We don't need the $506.00 a barrel gas equivalent price spike of last year. 4.00 would be good. 5.00 great. This year is probably still boring for gas

[kavern23]

Rex...unfortunately one small cold snap in Western Canada wont be enough to turn natty around. A person is going to need to see cold in alot of north american markets. Market is pricing in severe oversupply. Every storage basin is getting filled to the nuts. Even in North America, enough NG to start winter right now but at least 2 more weeks of storage injections. Road to paradise was never

[cfliesser]

cold snap may be coming... https://www.weather.gov/hun/climateforecast

[kavern23]

Going to be needed, colder temps next week are being priced in. Key is those forecasts cant warm up. But until next week, rest of this week in USA is not good situation. The big problem is USA is not below 5 year average like it was last fall when renewables really helped NG build in oct/nov of 2022. Wind energy has about 3.5-4 months of a year that it effects NG daily numbers in a material way.

[kavern23]

Forecast having Nov 1 at like a 2BCf injection due to colder weather really saved ng today after the weekend injections. Prices are going to get so volitile  Not sure how but USA prod supposed to hit 103.9 BCF a day. Has to be sweet spot drilling

[cfliesser]

thats pretty good. Unpopular opinion... I feel like supply and demand is pretty good for nat gas. https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-storage-1 If we look here, at the supply and demand tables. Supply is up from last year by 2.2 daily Bcf. But demand is up 7 daily Bcf. This seems to me like a net 5 Bcf draw compared to last year. Isn't that pretty massive? I think it may only

[kavern23]

The problem Cliff is last year is a bad comparision period as NG storage ballooned in back half of Oct and Nov as it was so warm last fall. USA was actually below 5 year average at this time and it was late Oct and Nov that had big storage surge in 2022. The big irony in all of this is what would the USA have done with all that LNG capacity without the Ukraine/Russian war?  USA LNG is

[cfliesser]

Yea maybe, but lng is in high demand now.  And capacity will continue to expand.