Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Great Job

[Helloworld]

Cash flow to EV keeps going up. Management doing a great job.

[kavern23]

For better or worse, one would think Q3 is released this week based on prior year reporting...be info soon enough.  Bored so i hope so

[Helloworld]

We know Q3 is bad. Market knows Q3 is bad. Worst performer on the day. Worst performer on the year. They need a clean shakeout and a restart.. cannot be spending $100 million and show no growth when you can go buy 5000 barrels for $100 million. Just awful execution. 

[fullyautomatic]

PRQ getting woodsheded... fun and games all around. I'm kinda nervous for YGR Q3 too. 

[kavern23]

Wow just seen PRQ price...maybe they are dumping their high ARO stuff and somebody doesnt like it... Hopefully more M&A acitivity in sector

[pennydredful]

PPR   sold    EVI   to   a private    and   some   small   stuff    to    White   Tundra    guy    whose   name  escapes   me      Whoopdedo !

[cfliesser]

Any idea why?  I see no news from them at all. 

[margaritaman]

That's not correct. At an exit of 14000 boe/d YGR would have added 2300 boe/d in 2023 (see 11700 boe/d 2022 exit) Assuming 35% decline (which may be on the high side but who knows ?) YGR would have to replace 4000 boe/d to keep production flat. With 30 wells drilled this year i see 10 of them driving growth and 20 replacing production. So roughly $30m for 2300 boe/d. Not stellar but crertainly

[TheRexmember]

There is a big difference between exit rate production numbers and average numbers for the year. and don't forget the wells do note decline at 35% (or 39% I have seen two different numbers). That is the corporate decline rate. The first year decline rate is much steeper.

[margaritaman]

Agreed. The numbers I'm giving are directional not intended to be bang on. Just want to make it clear that YGR is not spending $100M to maintain production at 12000 boe/d. 

[TheRexmember]

Still interested to see their quarter. It should tell us a lot. A little tired of all their amazing cost control that doesn't seem to move the needle on the balance sheet, debt level or requires dilution.  they should have grown into a healthier balance sheet by now.  If this Q confirms that, then we are in for a run because the stock is cheap. If not the mgt discount

[kavern23]

Even if Q3 isnt great and i dont expect it to be great due to delays, faster YGR releases results the better as the weather forecasts are looking quite bad. USA got alittle abit of cold, and the speculator pumpers went nuts but reality is setting in again. If current forecasts hold for weather over next two weeks, bearish as F*CK for NG. Berlin cant have a high of plus 10 and low of 5 degrees on

[TheRexmember]

You can hedge aeco for the whole year at about 3.05.  Winter nat gas prices will be fine in Alberta. We are not going into winter at almost 19 bcf like last year. Closer to 17. 

[kavern23]

The problem is going to be if winter is delayed. NG got alot of fortunate events in 2023 to even be at this prices in NA, wildfires and hottest temperatures this summer like on record. One variable that dont need to guess on is production levels will be high, that we know. We dont just need cool weather and heating demand, we are going to need actual freeze offs of wells. The big issue is the

[kavern23]

France hit 99.5% full and germany same at 99.5% full.  Netherlands 99.32%. Just Italy at 98.84% full with some room. Goldmand Sach and Jp Morgan are going to have to speculate and store NG on ocean lol. They deserve this mess they created. Panic the public and what now?