Post by
kavern23 on Nov 01, 2023 1:19am
PNE and Cetrus
The news of PNE buying Cetrus is quite big actually as it gives real world data on asset values.
But I have to say why did PNE leave so much information out of the press release like who exactly is this private instutional lender?
If I was to speculate I would guess it is Aimco providing the loan to PNE. Time will tell but that is my guess.
If it is Aimc providing the loan that will not deter me from shorting PNE at some point, I am in no rush to short it as I think I have at least two weeks. Todays price rise over 1.50 is a good thing for both of us.
Someone had a very large bid for PNE shares on Monday. This is why we need to know if any terms around the loan faculty like warrants...they didnt mention any warrants but is that the case.
Certus is interesting. On a much much smaller scale, they are kinda similar to Bonavista in even being able to find a buyer with mature gassy assets, they needed to have really good drilling locations to draw interest.
Reality is, I dont think really gassy weighted older more depleted wells 10 plus year old have much of a market for sale.
Certus glauconite wells locatons in garrington/caroline are really good for BOE a day numbers even if gassy. 3000 mcf and couple of hundred NGL's per day.
Problem used to be they were quite expensive to drill and frac a 2 mile glauconite well, 1600 feet deeper than cardium.
You can probably have a fairly good payback period on these new wells even in 2,50-3 ng if you are doing a continuous drill program and not stopping and getting cheap service rates. Bonavista runs 2 rigs and doesnt stop. Bonavista can prob do these wells for 4-4.5 instead of 5.7-6m a few years ago. That is difference in if you drill when NG is lower.
Thats why I dont like the fit for PNE and Cetrus. Can you drill one or two of these at a time cheaply?
Bonavista now TOU or Whitecap probably wanted these locations but not really material to either company...only 15 locations.
I think PNE is getting recently drilled well that is just or just got tied in by Cetrus. That would be considered in 100m.
The portion of cash used to pay for this is also an interesting thing until it is released.
I suspect PNE will keep lots of cash on hand as their 2024 will have some drilling and need cash for that.