Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

YGR Q4 - Production (Pick a Number)

[margaritaman]

I'll go with 12800. Any takers?

[cfliesser]

13.2k

[margaritaman]

Meet you half way at 13. Based on my numbers that would allow them to cash flow approx $34m and if CAPEX is kept in check FCF around $10m with a net income of $12m. Not bad for a company with a $150m market cap and EV of $266m. 

[cfliesser]

I think thats a very possible scenario

[kavern23]

I would tackle this estimate at a high level like this...but the change of completions methods and timing of production with flowbacks I dont have a "good handle" on. -6 wells in East Willy that basically didnt produce anything for Sept but looks like a few just started. Hard for me to tell how much time they will need to clean up. But I would assume these wells will be lower BOE

[kavern23]

Sorry post got cut off: 12100-1200+2600 = 13500 Boe exit with higher oil content that Q3 With downside of range 12800 and upside of 14500 if on a stats curve. I dont think my numbers are overly bullish and balanced and I am not factoring any belly production. Timing that is so tricky to predict. But getting oil back to 3000 is more important than going over 13000 BOE. One would think though