Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Cheaper Today than 2020

[Helloworld]

At the end of 2020 YGR had quarterly production of 9k bpd with quarterly FFO of 12.5 million and had declining production numbers due to reduced Capex through 2020. The company had an EV of 260 million. 

Over the last 3 years YGR has spent capital assembling an OFS division, has increased Q4 production by 40% to 13k bpd, is likely to FFO 35 million in the quarter and is in a significantly better pricing environment and has an EV under 260 million.

Wild.

[kavern23]

Helloworld I don't disagree with your points but... also one big difference between 2020 and now. lending in sector has really tightened up. in 2020 Yangarra had a 210m debt faculty and 2023 it is 140m and starts to drop from this in sept right? massive difference. this factor is holding Ygr back by at least 20 cents on share price imo. the more room Ygr gets under debt faculty the better

[Overertune]

So when do you think ygr will reach 80m debt target and start paying dividends?

[Helloworld]

It seems Capex is about 25 million a quarter to keep 1 rig rolling. I hope they don't spend much more than that each quarter until debt targets are met but it could increase if they buy land or invest in infrastructure (like Q1).  At 2.5 aeco and 80 (Q4 average thus far) they should FCF about 3-4 million a month (which should ideally increase until production hits a 1 rig equilibrium

[kavern23]

Guessing thou Q4 will be over 30m capex but I agree with you a pathway to 25m capex q's exist. Ygr is drilling at a good pace right now, 4 well pad plus belly in chambers and now a cardium was spud in chmabers on nov 16th.  Two more licenses so could be doing three more to take them to end of dec. Another 8 wells plus all the early ones at end of sept/begin of oct. One of the best things

[pennydredful]

since   management--employees   have  a lot  of   cheap   options   it    would   be   preferable  from their   point   of  view  to   not  pay any   dividends  and use   excess   cash   for   a  NCIB

[Hendrick3]

It just shows fundamentals don't matter, only sentiment and momentum. It has to get better but that could take 18-24 months. We will all have to be patient. It's a 4-5 dollar stock on almost any relative measure. Who said the market was rational? 

[margaritaman]

Text book deep value.  Growing production at a rate that is less than initially forecast and some setbacks beyond their control has hurt the stock. They need 2 -3 quarters of delivering on what they promise in order to get the same multiple as peers and attract the retail crowd. If you can stomach the volatility and the lack of transparency YGR offers some of the best up side in this space