Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Venzuela Guyana Spat

[kavern23]

It supposely moved oil up abit today, Venzuela supposed to have a referendum on sunday, potentially taking over territory that is Guyana;s currently or offering citizenship..nothing is quite clear.

Hard to say if Venzuela even has the military capability to do anything. They spend only 700-800m a year on their military. They dont really have any fighting ship capability, just a few subs,

And in hard forest terrian, Guyana wouldnt need that much USA weapons to defend themselves. Just need to cover a few roads.

From an oil price perspective these wars are bad for oil.
Russia still be in Ukraine isnt great for oil as Russian cant fund their monthly military costs without alot of oil sales....hard for them to contribute to OPEC cut.

Russia has cheated many months on their quotas. The war is forcing alot of oil exports even in refined product again.

I peg the odds of the meeting coming to this result:

50% rollover of existing cut, maybe all of 2024
30% of a .5m to 2m barrel cut
20% to a production hike from Saudia to teach Russia and others a lesson on quota compliance.

This meeting really is a massive thing for how Decemeber will go.

[kavern23]

And I guess forgot the fourth possible outcome...the meeting is delayed again or cancelled...and that scenario would be ugly for oil prices.

[cfliesser]

A military conflict is more likely than you think. Guyana has essentially no military. The area is sparsely populated.  Venezuela has deployed their milkitary to the border. So if they want to it should be a walk in the park. Politically They are having a sham referendum to justify military action. Maduro is an unpopular dictator. Unpopular dictators look for easy military gains to gain

[kavern23]

World governments were crafty with Guyana. The prolific Staboerk offshore oil block in Guyana has both Chevron (USA) and China's CNOOC with stakes in oil production. Having China involved was brillant move.