Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Macro chat

[margaritaman]

Not sure why but the YGR site seems to attract a disproportionate amount of macro chat. Hmmm?

[kavern23]

Because what else is their to talk about? No YGR news out.... And YGR's Q4 is not shaping up to be a huge FCF quarter. Thats the reality.

[cfliesser]

Haha yep there is no other good or exciting news to talk about. And a good crowd to chat with here. 

[kavern23]

Okay Margaritaman...you want a topic...what do you think year end prices will be for BNE YGR Petrus IPO

[kavern23]

BNE - 4.50 YGR - 1 - 1.10 Petrus - 90 cents IPO - 1.80 Unless things change fast....by either Dec 30 or jan 30th...price range i expect... Am I a permabull? Nope I am just a a guy that has survived this for 20 years because I am not a hyper bull 100% of the time.

[margaritaman]

Now that's more like it Kavern! 

[pennydredful]

IPO,s   recently   renewed   NCIB    should    be   in their   buying   in that   at    1.80    the   stock yield is   10%    on    the dividend   alone   .  

[kavern23]

Penny...I like divys and NICB as well...but my question is...due to the play they are in...cardium...should IPO be saving capital for down part of cycle to buy other cardium players? instead of paying capital out. NCIB I guess are okay as by lowering shares outstanding it good for any potential increase from a takeover. But IPO has had great sucess from buying others ARC property to even Priaire

[margaritaman]

Not sure I'm quiet as pessimistic but do agree there is some downside risk across the sector if commodity prices remain where they are. I think we see WTI above $80 for most of December and with AECO hovering around $2.50 YGR and other will have decent FFO. I'm taking a longer term view on YGR and as long as they right the ship with drilling results I see this a $4.00 stock in the right

[kavern23]

To get those prices...I used a -25% haircut for all of Cardium players to get a target price for end of Dec. Some may drop 15%...so I guess YGR may dip to 1.20-1.25. 15%-25% is range I expect Cardium players to drop. Commodity prices are heading back to that pre 2019 range and Cardium isnt ideal for those commodity prices ranges. January hedge prices is below 2.50 on aeco and July is near 2

[kavern23]

Not patting myself on back as I am not in market right now and dont want this, but I did write this on December 1: BNE - 4.50 YGR - 1 - 1.10 Petrus - 90 cents IPO - 1.80 I personally dont expect new larger retail money to support these stocks until those price levels.... Hopefully some Cardium companues realse capex this week so some new to talk about.

[kavern23]

A company like Petrus is so owned by insiders, it can temp trade "out of range" soo too speak. Same with BNE and its low shares oustanding.

[margaritaman]

Kudos to you Kavern. I'll give credit where credit is due. You may well be right in the short term but still see this as the cardium play with the best upside in a low commodity price environment. 

[kavern23]

Agreed on best long term cardium play in YGR, IPO and BNE....is YGR

[pennydredful]

By   any   traditional  measure  like    EPS  ,  PE  ratio,  Price  to book  etc   YGR   is   the   cheapest . Why  is   that one might ask  ? If   you asked   Nuttal about  YGR  why would he  be  rolling on the floor laughing

[fullyautomatic]

One would have to agree with you on this one. I used to think of it as focused (which was the attraction) but perhaps focused to the point of blinding. So micromanaged seems appropriate. I would like to have a window into Lorne Simpson's perspective on the drilling since his departure. Mr. Miller on the board is someone who has failed spectacularly (Longrun) in the past and I hope his advice

[margaritaman]

Fully, I think both you and Penny hit the nail on the head. Jim is probably a great operations guy with a flare for how to drive cost out of the business but not as skilled at the C Suite. YGR has been unbale to attract the type of investor base that would provide stability to the stock and avoid the gross under valuations such as the one we are currently seeing. Should YGR be trading over $2.00

[Hendrick3]

You make some good points. I think I may be significantly invested in ygr because they are focussed on the micro issues and because as you say on some traditional measure they are the cheapest. Nuttal would laugh only because they have such low liquidity. I recall him commenting favourably on ygr years ago but dismissed them as too illiquid. No investor can buy or sell a meaningful position

[pennydredful]

One   advantage  of  dividends  is  they  give  the investor  optionality   to   invest  in same name  or  whatever  other  name  he  might choose. 

[kavern23]

Penny take Entrada. It looks to be have land shared with both OBE and IPO. The smaller a company is like Entrada size...harder it is to fund a drilling program with lower commodity prices. But how will IPO be able to compete with OBE on entrada if it comes into play and is marketed in the future Cardium as a whole is all about drilling. Minute you stop drilling and put the rig away...production

[pennydredful]

Not  everything  is  about brute force dollars.  It  is being  nimble ,  personal relationships and  having your  ear to  the ground.  People  may  have  personal  (  tax  reasons)   to  hold  or  sell  any   stock  as  sales  have  tax  consequences

[Hendrick3]

If we knew for sure that oil would stay stronger on pricing than natural gas, I would agree. Unfortunately I don't know that. 

[pennydredful]

If  you  do not know like  me  you  need   some  exposure  to both  .  If   you  compare  the  credentials  of  IPO  CFO   he  is  likely   working  WITH  the   CEO   , while   at   YGR   she  is likely working

[Hendrick3]

James Glessing is a she? I think you underestimate the finance knowledge at YGR. The CEO is an ex investment banker and Glessing is a very capable Finance professional.  You might be pressing your point too far. The best hedge against low prices is to be a low cost producer. Ygr is a low cost producer. I have lots of respect for IPO so I am not going to suggest weakness there either.  

[pennydredful]

Small  correction   the   ex   banker   is   the   President  and  does  not  hold the   CEO title. The She  must  be below Glessing 

[Hendrick3]

Thanks for the correction. 

[pennydredful]

ONLY   Kavern23  knows   that. LOL