Yangarra Resources Ltd T.YGR

Have we started to turn the corner?

[margaritaman]

Looking at petroninja a couple of encouraging wells came on in January. Long ways to go to recover from the disaster that was 2023 but may stopping the bleeding. Curious to see the Q4 results in the coming weeks. Any estimates in daily production?  I'll pull number out of my a## and say 11500.

[kavern23]

I agree with you...I think around 11500 range for Jan. It doesn't look like Petroninja has updated Jan with natural liquid numbers like propane etc... but it is handy too see ngl numbers since it was added too petroninja data not that many days ago. Ferrier and chambers seems to be higher liquids rich gas...expect in 2024 ygr drills as quite abit here. I do think it encouraging as

[Hendrick3]

I would say 12200. 

[fullyautomatic]

I would say you are high..  Moved a bit over to SDE after their ER. I'm a sucker for the Duvernay and wildcatting- just gambling is all.  It's time for YGR to recoginize something is missing personal wise, specifically geology. One thing is to run a tight ship, another all together to place the rig where it counts...

[Helloworld]

Is this where we are at. 12k production in Q3. Company gives presentations touting a Q4 exit at 14k in Sept and Oct. No one thinks production even held flat in Q4. Ouch. People should be held accountable for this 'performance'.  Stock underperformed sector by over 50% last year.  This year already 20% underperformance.

[kavern23]

Spartan delta is for sure an interesting one as their management team likes to do deals. I think a chance exists they buy obsidian central Alberta deep basin stuff...and obsidian is left as a stand alone peace River company. As soon as peace River is big enough to support cf to drill which isn't far away. sde even has a slide in latest presentation about consolidation, time will tell

[Hendrick3]

Loukas is aiming to grow the company to 50,000boe/day. A sale of the Cardium would be in complete opposition to that plan. Any buyer would have to hand a huge premium to OBE to take them off that strategy. I am sure Delta Spartan can do deals much cheaper than that. 

[kavern23]

Hendrick..once Peace River is producing 15,000 barrels a day it doesnt need Cardium FCF to fund growth....OBE can't publicly say we want to sell Cardium. I am sure Loukas has seen Headwater only a 20000 barrel a day clearwater producer is valued at 1.6b market cap.   Obe has a better land position than Headwater. Mixing Peace River with Central alberta assets will never get the

[Flush11]

so Loukus says, we will see what his golden parachute looks like one day. Eventually a takeover by Baytex makes the most sense. Roll the prop assets and viking into baytex and sell the cardium in pieces to a variety of different players to maximize the sale price and offload the ARO. There must be 10 different players that would like to add some cardium assets. YGR, Whitecap, BNE, Orlens... It

[kavern23]

Flush..but what would the synergies be for any of those smaller Cardium players to buy OBE cardium assets...keeping in mind the cost of capital in this sector is insanely high right now. Share offering market is almost dead. Spartan Delta makes most sense at some point (1-4 years) to look at OBE's cardium assets. Alot of OBE willy cardium assets, Spartan owns deep rights. When Spartan

[kavern23]

Inplay is most puzzling Cardium player from aspect they dont have a no brainer dance partner in next 1-4 years. Like who has assets complementary to IPO...IPO is so spread out. And IPO isnt branching away from Cardium like BNE and OBE are. Orlens, YGR, and Petrus are in much more undrilled area compared to Pembina and willy.

[pennydredful]

LIkely  spread   out   as  formered   from  3  predessor  companies   for   financial   reasons  not  operating  synergies. 

[kavern23]

Obe peace river drilling will give alot of clues. PROP needs to produce 12-15k boe before it can walk without cardium FCF funding it. just like BNE charlie lake will need to be 3-4k boe before it can self fund at all. Kinda in early innings of the ball game.

[TheRexmember]

Money is available but you are right its a bit expensive for now. I bet it comes down a little over the next couple years. BUT, balance sheets are in great shape almost across the board, gas prices will recover pretty quickly and OBE has a ton of JV locations. Some also have no problem accessing debt and equity. SOIL and IPO for example.